Conservative dominance in Tehran signals a shift in the political landscape
Iranian electoral authorities are tabulating votes after Friday’s (March 1, 2024) parliamentary election, with unofficial reports indicating the lowest turnout (41%) since the 1979 Islamic revolution. This electoral event marks the first one following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, whose demise while in police custody sparked widespread protests in 2022. A portion of reformist individuals are opting out of participating in the election, amidst pervasive economic difficulties. Preliminary results indicate that conservative candidates have secured victory in all 30 seats allocated for Tehran.
In recent years, Iran grapples with severe international sanctions, economic turmoil, and internal unrest. Despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s encouragement for voter participation, Iranians remain divided on engagement. Two concurrent polls occurred on Friday: one for parliament members and another for the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting and supervising Iran’s supreme leader.
Iranian Election Statistics: 41% Turnout
Earlier, a state-affiliated polling agency forecasts a 41% turnout for the parliamentary vote, potentially the lowest in 12 elections. Vote counting, done manually, is ongoing, with partial results released by Iran’s state news agency, IRNA. The Assembly of Experts’ count is nearing completion, consisting of 88 Islamic clerics tasked with selecting the next supreme leader.
President Ebrahim Raisi secures re-election to the assembly, reportedly garnering 82.5% of votes in South Khorasan province. Around 50 parliamentary seats have been allocated by some city councils, with final results expected imminently. Official turnout figures remain undisclosed. Analysts interpret a low turnout as disillusionment with political processes, despite calls from officials to vote.
Elections took place across 59,000 voting stations in Iran, including 6,800 in Tehran province, with electronic voting devices utilized in 1,700 stations. The Interior Ministry deployed 250,000 security personnel, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces, along with the army, to ensure security amidst recent events.
According to unofficial statistics cited by Iranian media on Saturday (March 2, 2023), the participation rate in the nationwide vote for the 12th term of the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) and the 6th term of the Assembly of Experts exceeded 40%, while the results of vote counting in several constituencies remained pending.
Iranian Election At A Glance
- Election held on – March 1, 2024
- Total polling stations – 59,000
- Tehran province – 6,800
- Electronic voting devices utilized – 1,700 stations
- Security personnel deployed – 250,000
- Voter turnout – 41%
- Voting time – From 8 a.m. local time (0430)
- Candidates – 15,000
- Contended for – 290 seats
- 144 candidates competing for – Assembly of Experts
- The turnout in 2020 – 42%
Over 15,000 candidates contended for 290 seats in the Iranian parliament, with an additional 144 candidates competing for positions in the eight-year-term Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body tasked with overseeing the activities of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, possessing the authority to appoint or dismiss the Leader.
The voting concluded at midnight local time following 16 consecutive hours. A total of 61.17 million eligible voters, comprising 30.94 million men and 30.22 million women, were entitled to participate in the two elections. The Iranian Interior Ministry reported that over 25 million individuals cast their votes.
The turnout for the parliamentary elections in 2020 hit a historic low of 42 percent, marking the lowest level since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979 up before 2024. Subsequently, the 2021 presidential elections witnessed a meager 48 percent turnout, indicating a notable decline in voter participation over recent years.
Electoral System in Iran
The Islamic Consultative Assembly, comprising 290 seats, is constituted of 285 members directly elected by the people and five seats designated for representatives of the Zoroastrian, Jewish, Assyrian and Chaldean Christian, and Armenian communities (one each for Armenians residing in the north and south of Iran). The 285 directly elected seats were chosen from 196 single and multi-member electoral districts. In single-member districts, candidates must garner at least 25% of the vote in the initial round to secure victory; if no candidate meets this threshold, a runoff is conducted between the top two contenders. In multi-member districts, voters can cast a number of votes equivalent to the seats available; if not all seats are filled by candidates achieving at least 25% of the vote, a second round occurs with twice the number of candidates as there are seats to be filled (or all original candidates if the number is less than double the seats).
Qualifications:
As with the preceding election, candidates must meet the following criteria outlined in Iranian laws:
- Iranian citizenship
- Support for the Islamic Republic, affirming allegiance to the constitution
- Practice of Islam (unless vying to represent a religious minority)
- Absence of a “notorious reputation”
- Good health and age between 30 and 75
A candidate will face disqualification if found to:
- Have mental impairment
- Advocate for the Shah or support illegal political entities
- Engage in anti-government activities
- Convert to another faith or renounce Islam
- Be convicted of corruption, treason, fraud, or bribery
- Be an addict or trafficker
- Violate Sharia law
Furthermore, candidates must be literate and cannot have held positions in the pre-1979 government, possess large land holdings, have convictions related to actions against the state or apostasy, or belong to certain governmental bodies or religious leadership roles. This includes government ministers, members of the Guardian Council and High Judicial Council, the Head of the Administrative Court of Justice, the Head of General Inspection, certain civil servants, religious leaders, and any member of the armed forces.
Election Campaign Overview
Preregistration lasted for a period of seven days, during which a remarkable 48,847 individuals enrolled as potential candidates for the upcoming election. These candidates underwent scrutiny by the Guardian Council to ascertain their eligibility to participate in the election. Notably, 75% of these candidates were under the age of 50. Eventually, approximately 15,200 candidates received the green light to proceed with their campaigns, with reformists estimated to comprise between 20 to 30 percent of this group.
Noteworthy was the significant increase in female candidates, totaling 1,713, more than double the number from the previous election at 819. Notable figures like former president Hassan Rouhani considered a moderate, were among those barred from contesting. Following the vetting process, candidates were given a brief window of one week, from February 22nd to February 29th, to engage in public campaigning.
In Conclusion, Iran’s recent parliamentary election reflects a concerning trend with historically low turnout, notably in Tehran. Reformist withdrawal amidst economic hardships and internal unrest underscores disillusionment. Conservative dominance in Tehran signals a shift in the political landscape. The election’s implications reveal a nation grappling with multifaceted challenges.
