Key Highlights:
- European leaders fear that the potential return of former President Donald Trump could disrupt their partnership with Washington
- In recent years, China and Russia forged a strategic alliance against US dominance, extending influence in Eurasia, and collaborating on global issues such as climate change, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Syrian conflict
- The European Union has adjusted its stance towards China in recent years, labeling it as a “systemic rival” and a “strategic competitor” since 2019
- A Trump win might force Europe to become more independent and assertive and to take more responsibility for its own security and interests
China’s chief diplomat, Wang Yi, conveyed to European counterparts that amidst global transformations, China remains committed to being a “constant and steadfast” influence, promoting stability.
Wang’s assertion, delivered at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, February 17, comes amidst European leaders’ cautious observation of the upcoming United States elections, fearing that the potential return of former President Donald Trump could disrupt their partnership with Washington.
Concerns heightened in the past week following Trump’s declaration that he would not support NATO allies failing to meet defense spending targets—a statement alarming to many in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s remarks, strategically timed, provide fodder for Wang as he visits Europe amidst Beijing’s efforts to mend fraying relations with the bloc, exacerbated by domestic economic challenges and persistent tensions with the US.
“No matter how the world changes, China, as a responsible major country, will keep its major principles and policies consistent and stable and serve as a staunch force for stability in a turbulent world. Stay clear of geopolitical and ideological distractions and work together.”
-Wang Yi, China’s Chief Diplomat.
While Wang’s proposal may find traction in certain European capitals eager to stabilize their ties with China, analysts note a significant obstacle hindering progress in repairing relations: Beijing’s unwavering alliance with Moscow.Top of Form
China and Russia: A Strategic Partnership or a Liability?
The challenges became glaringly apparent over the weekend in Munich, where the security conference took a backseat amidst shock and anger following reports of the passing of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny at the age of 47.
Navalny, who was detained in January 2023 upon his return from Germany, where he received treatment for nerve agent poisoning, had initiated a hunger strike since March 31, 2023 to protest the inadequate medical attention in prison. His demise on Saturday, attributed to cardiac arrest by his legal representatives, prompted widespread outcry.
China and Russia have fostered a close strategic alliance in recent years, grounded in their joint opposition to US dominance, their shared objective of extending influence in Eurasia, and their collaboration on various global issues such as climate change, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Syrian conflict.
The two nations have also strengthened their military and economic bonds, engaging in joint military exercises, striking energy agreements, and advancing infrastructure initiatives as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Nonetheless, China’s alignment with Russia carries repercussions, alienating numerous European nations that perceive Moscow as a menace and a violator of international standards. This alignment has heightened concerns in Europe regarding China’s own global aspirations and contributed to the European Union’s ongoing efforts to reassess its approach toward China.
“We are not interested in a new Cold War or a confrontation with the West, but we will defend our national interests and sovereignty against any aggression or provocation. We are open to dialogue and cooperation on the issues that affect global stability and security, such as arms control, cyber security, counter-terrorism, and climate change.”
-Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia
Europe’s Dilemma: How to Deal with China?
The European Union has adjusted its stance towards China in recent years, labeling it as a “systemic rival” and a “strategic competitor” since 2019. In 2020, the EU unveiled a fresh strategy towards China, aiming to navigate between cooperation, competition, and confrontation.
While some member states, notably in Central and Eastern Europe, heavily depend on Chinese trade and investment and hesitate to challenge Beijing, others such as Germany and France express greater concerns about China’s technological and geopolitical rise and advocate for a more proactive response.
“As long as war in Ukraine continues, EU policies toward China will move into closer alignment with the US. Most likely, Europeans will join the US to double down export restrictions over critical technologies in light of viewing the Union’s economic security as paramount.”
– Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Managing its relationship with the United States is also a key priority for the EU, particularly in light of President Joe Biden’s efforts to rejuvenate the transatlantic partnership and unite democratic nations against China. While welcoming increased US engagement, the EU aims to preserve its strategic autonomy and avoid being drawn into a new Cold War scenario with China.
Consequently, the EU faces the challenge of dealing with China, which plays both a cooperative and competitive role, especially as China aligns more closely with Russia, a clear adversary.
A Trump Win Might be Good for Europe
In fact, a Trump win in 2024 might not be as bad as some European leaders think, and might even be good for Europe in some ways. A Trump win might force Europe to become more independent and assertive and to take more responsibility for its own security and interests.
Europe might also be able to leverage its position and influence as a mediator and a bridge between the US and other countries, such as China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and to play a more constructive and proactive role in resolving global issues and conflicts.
Furthermore, Europe could potentially gain advantages from certain aspects of Trump’s policies. For instance, his stance against the Iran deal, which has been ineffective in restraining Tehran’s nuclear aspirations and regional assertiveness, and his endorsement of Brexit, which has liberated the UK from the bureaucratic and undemocratic limitations of the EU, might offer opportunities for Europe as well.
As the US elections cast a shadow of doubt over Europe, the possibility of a second Trump term heightens the tension between order and chaos. China’s outreach to Europe suggests a willingness to cooperate, but its strong ties with Russia pose a serious hurdle to harmony. As the EU navigates a changing world, a Trump win could be both a threat and a chance for Europe to demonstrate its independence and power.
