Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. The low-lying, densely populated, and delta-exposed nation faces multiple threats from rising sea levels, temperature rise, food crises, droughts, floods, and cyclones. These threats have serious implications for the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, especially in the southern coastal regions of the country.
Bangladesh has a population of about 166 million, of which 56 percent live in high climate exposure areas, and 53 million are subject to very high exposure. The country ranks seventh in the list of countries most affected by climate calamities during the period 1999–2018, according to Germanwatch’s 2021 Global Climate Risk Index. The country’s geography, socio-economic factors, and dependence on agriculture make it highly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change.
However, Bangladesh is not a passive victim of climate change. The country has taken various steps to adapt to the changing conditions and mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions.
Displacement of Population
One of the most severe impacts of climate change on Bangladesh is the displacement of the population due to various hazards. A study by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that by 2050, about 0.9 million people in the south may be displaced by sea level rise, 0.7 million by riverbank erosion, 0.5 million by salinity intrusion, and 0.4 million by cyclones. The study also projected that by 2100, these numbers may increase to 2.1 million, 1.4 million, 1.2 million, and 0.9 million, respectively.
Sea level rise is one of the most alarming threats for Bangladesh, as it may submerge about 11 percent of the country’s land by 2050, and 17 percent by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This would affect the coastal districts of Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Noakhali, and Cox’s Bazar, where about 35 million people live.
Riverbank erosion is another major cause of displacement in Bangladesh, as the country loses about 10,000 hectares of land every year due to this phenomenon. The erosion affects the riparian districts of Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Sirajganj, Rajbari, Manikganj, Faridpur, Madaripur, Shariatpur, and Chandpur, where about 21 million people live. Riverbank erosion may also worsen due to climate change, as increased rainfall, glacier melting, and sea level rise may alter the river flows and sedimentation patterns.
Salinity may occur due to sea level rise, reduced river flows, tidal surges, and human activities, such as shrimp farming and water extraction. Salinity intrusion affects the coastal districts of Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Feni, and Chattogram, where about 28 million people live. Salinity intrusion may reduce the availability and quality of drinking water, and harm crop production and biodiversity.
Bangladesh is one of the most cyclone-prone countries in the world, as it experiences about two cyclones per year on average, and has faced some of the deadliest cyclones in history, such as the 1970 Bhola cyclone, which killed about 500,000 people, and the 2007 Sidr cyclone, which killed about 3,500 people with huge devastation. Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones, as warmer sea surface temperatures may provide more energy and moisture for their formation and intensification.
To address this challenge, the government of Bangladesh has developed a National Strategy for the Management of Disaster and Climate-Induced Internal Displacement, which aims to prevent, reduce, and manage the displacement of people within the country. The strategy focuses on enhancing the resilience of vulnerable communities, providing humanitarian assistance and protection to the displaced, and facilitating their durable solutions.
The government has also initiated several projects to relocate the people living in low-lying coastal areas to safer locations. For example, the Ashrayan Project has built over 66,000 houses for climate refugees in 11 districts and plans to build more in the future. The government has also allocated land for the resettlement of the people affected by river erosion and cyclones.
Effects on Agriculture
Agriculture is the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy and society, as it provides food, income, and employment for the majority of the population. However, agriculture is also the most vulnerable sector to the impacts of climate change, as it depends on the natural conditions of rainfall, temperature, and soil quality.
Climate change may affect agricultural production and productivity in various ways, such as:
- Temperature rise may alter the crop growth cycles, reduce the crop yields, and increase the pest and disease outbreaks. According to the IPCC, the average temperature in Bangladesh may rise by 1.6°C by 2050, and by 2.7°C by 2100, under the high emission scenario. This may reduce the rice yield by 8 percent by 2050, and by 17 percent by 2100, according to a study by the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC).
- Rainfall variability may affect the availability and distribution of water for irrigation, and increase the risk of floods and droughts. According to the IPCC, the annual rainfall in Bangladesh may increase by 4 percent by 2050, and by 6 percent by 2100, under the high emission scenario. However, the rainfall may also become more erratic and uneven, with more rainfall in the monsoon season and less rainfall in the dry season. This may cause waterlogging and flooding in some areas, and water scarcity and drought in others.
- Sea level rise may increase the salinity intrusion in the coastal areas, this may affect about 20 percent of the country’s land, and about 15 percent of the country’s rice production, according to a study by the World Bank.
- Cyclones may destroy the crops and infrastructure, and disrupt agricultural activities. According to the IPCC, the frequency and intensity of cyclones may increase by 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively, by 2100.
To cope with these impacts, the government of Bangladesh has implemented various adaptation measures to enhance the resilience of the agricultural system. Some of these measures include:
- Promoting climate-smart agriculture practices, such as drought-tolerant and saline-resistant crop varieties, integrated pest management, organic farming, and agroforestry.
- Developing and disseminating climate information and early warning systems to help farmers plan and prepare for weather shocks.
- Providing financial and technical support to farmers through subsidies, credit, insurance, and extension services.
- Strengthening the institutional and policy framework for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector, such as the National Agricultural Policy, the National Food Policy, and the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan.
Effects on People, Culture
The displacement of the population due to climate change may have profound effects on the people and culture of Bangladesh.
The people who are displaced may face various challenges and risks, such as:
Loss of livelihoods and income:
The displaced people may lose their sources of livelihoods and income, such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, which may increase their poverty and vulnerability.
Loss of homes and assets:
Displaced people may lose their homes and assets, such as land, houses, and livestock, which may reduce their wealth and security.
Loss of social networks and ties:
The displaced people may lose their social networks and ties, such as family, friends, and community, which may affect their social capital and support.
Loss of identity and culture:
The displaced people may lose their identity and culture, such as language, religion, and traditions, which may affect their sense of self and dignity.
To address these effects, the government of Bangladesh has taken various steps to protect and improve the well-being of its people and culture. Some of these steps include:
- Improving the health system’s capacity and preparedness to deal with climate-related diseases and emergencies, such as establishing climate-resilient health facilities, training health workers, and providing essential medicines and supplies.
- Enhancing the education system’s responsiveness and inclusiveness to climate change, such as integrating climate change education into the curriculum, providing scholarships and stipends to vulnerable students, and building climate-resilient schools.
- Preserving and promoting the cultural heritage and diversity of Bangladesh, such as conserving the Sundarbans mangrove forest, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site and a source of livelihood and identity for many people.
Effects on Economy
The displacement of the population due to climate change may also have significant effects on the economy of Bangladesh.
The economy may suffer from various costs and losses, such as:
Loss of production and productivity:
The displacement of the population may reduce the production and productivity of the agricultural sector, which is the main contributor to the GDP and employment of the country. According to a study by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), climate change-induced displacement may cause a cumulative loss of about $1.4 trillion to the GDP of Bangladesh by 2050.
Loss of trade and competitiveness:
The displacement of the population may affect the trade and competitiveness of the country, as it may disrupt the supply chains, reduce the export earnings, and increase the import costs. According to a study by the World Bank, climate change-induced displacement may reduce the export growth by 0.8 percent and increase the import growth by 1.1 percent by 2050.
Loss of fiscal and monetary stability:
The displacement of population may affect the fiscal and monetary stability of the country, as it may increase public expenditure, reduce tax revenue, and create inflationary pressures. According to a study by the Asian Development Bank, climate change-induced displacement may increase the fiscal deficit by 0.7 percent and the inflation rate by 0.4 percent by 2050.
Loss of human and social capital:
The displacement of the population may affect the human and social capital of the country, as it may reduce the education, health, and skill levels, and increase poverty, inequality, and social conflicts. According to a study by the Center for Participatory Research Development, climate change-induced displacement may reduce the literacy rate by 2.5 percent and the life expectancy by 1.2 years by 2050.
To mitigate these effects, the government of Bangladesh has taken various steps to foster a low-carbon and climate-resilient development path for the country. Some of these steps include:
- Investing in renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, and biogas, to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and increase access to clean and affordable energy.
- Improving energy efficiency and conservation in various sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings, to reduce the energy demand and emissions.
- Enhancing green growth and circular economy practices, such as waste management, recycling, and green financing, to reduce the environmental footprint and create new jobs and markets.
- Mobilizing and managing the financial resources for climate change mitigation and adaptation, such as the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund, the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund, and the Green Climate Fund.
Possible Way-out
It is imperative for Bangladesh to take urgent and effective actions to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change, and to seek support and cooperation from the regional and international community. Some of the possible actions are:
Enhancing the resilience and adaptation of the coastal and riverine communities, by investing in infrastructure, technology, and innovation, such as embankments, cyclone shelters, early warning systems, saline-tolerant crops, and renewable energy.
Promoting the sustainable and inclusive development of the urban and rural areas, by improving the governance, planning, and service delivery, such as housing, water, sanitation, health, education, and social protection.
Strengthening the regional and global collaboration and dialogue, by engaging in multilateral platforms and initiatives, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR).
Bangladesh has shown remarkable resilience and leadership in facing the challenges of climate change and has achieved significant progress in reducing poverty, improving health, and enhancing human development. However, the country needs to continue and accelerate its efforts to cope with the looming displacement crisis and to ensure a prosperous and secure future for its people and the planet.
