Key highlights:
- The key to Ukraine’s current plan to defeat Russia is the capacity to produce enough arms for its own army
- Currently, Ukrainian forces are expending approximately 110,000 155mm shells each month
- 27 EU states ratified a 50 billion euros ($54 billion) support package, including 33 billion euros ($35.8 billion) in loans and 17 billion euros ($18.4 billion) in grants
- Ukraine’s drone industry burgeoned from 7 to 80 private manufacturers within a year
Even though it has been almost eight decades since the end of World War II, its impact on shaping the strategic vision of war remains today. Despite the remarkable advances in the fields of aviation, missile technology, and space-based assets, for example, the concept of victory is the same: “To defeat the enemy and to seize or free territory.”
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However, every war is different. The biggest challenge for the military commander is to comprehend – in a timely manner – how each war is influenced differently. Firstly, technological progress, which affects the development of weapons and equipment. And, secondly, by political conditions at home and abroad, and the economic environment. Victory requires a unique strategy and follows a unique logic.
It is widely known by now that a key driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems. They are spreading rapidly and the range of their applications expands constantly. Importantly, it is these unmanned systems – such as drones – along with other kinds of advanced weapons, that offer the best way for Ukraine to avoid getting involved in a positional war, where Ukraine does not have the upper hand. But while expertise in such technologies is essential, it is not the only factor affecting current strategy.
Ukraine must Handle a Decrease in Military Assistance from Key Allies
Following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s orders, the Ukrainians have started to reduce their dependence on Western weapons by making more of their own. Most of the recent attacks on Russian targets have originated from Ukrainian workshops and factories, not from foreign supplies.
The key to Ukraine’s current plan to defeat the Russians is its capacity to produce enough arms for its own army. Earlier this year, there was a lot of optimism that Ukraine could launch an offensive and move forward, using a mobile warfare strategy to reclaim a lot of land that Russia had taken in 2022.
However, they faced many challenges, such as deep Russian minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire, as well as the widespread use of First-Person-View (FPV) drones along the frontlines, which made it harder to launch surprise attacks. In the south, where the main effort was concentrated, Ukrainian forces managed to move about 20 kilometers; their goal had been to reach the coast, which was about 70 kilometers away.
“We must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies, grappling with their own political tensions. Our goal must be to seize the moment – to maximize our accumulation of the latest combat capabilities, which will allow us to commit fewer resources to inflicting maximum damage on the enemy, to end the aggression and protect Ukraine from it in the future.”
-Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces points out the lack of a new US military aid deal for Ukraine and the shift of global attention to the Middle East since October 2023. He highlights the achievements of its domestic drone industry, such as hitting Russian naval assets in the Black Sea with its sea drones and striking targets in and near Russia’s major cities with its long-range drones.
Remote-controlled drones offer a more palatable way of conducting combat operations in a society that may be hesitant to expose many young men and women to direct danger. But he argues that their significance goes beyond that, as he expresses his conviction that unmanned aerial vehicles and other advanced technologies have transformed not only how wars are fought but also how they are planned.
He asserts that only by abandoning “outdated, stereotypical thinking” can modern armies secure victory in war.
Why Ukraine’s Military Expansion Needs Western Backing?
Artillery Shells Production and Ukrainian Requirements
- Monthly Consumption by Ukrainian Forces:
- Current: 110,000 shells
- Required: 360,000 shells
- Monthly Production by Allies:
- United States: 28,000 shells
- EU Nations: 25,000 shells (collectively)
Given the initial missile strikes on Ukraine, the unwavering military backing from Western allies has stood as a cornerstone of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s all-out invasion. The consistent and ample supply of artillery shells forms a linchpin in the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s ability to carry out offensive maneuvers. Currently, Ukrainian forces are expending approximately 110,000 155mm shells each month, yet the minimum required for executing successful battle strategies is nearly three times higher, at 360,000 shells monthly.
Presently, the United States manufactures 28,000 155 mm-caliber rounds per month, while EU nations collectively produce nearly 25,000 rounds monthly. Although Western allies intend to triple their production of artillery rounds soon, this escalation would still fall short of meeting the Armed Forces Of Ukraine (AFU)’s minimum requirements.
Consequently, it would be pragmatic for the EU to deepen its involvement with Ukroboronprom, Ukraine’s state-owned military manufacturer, regarding its artillery shell production expansion initiative.
EU Financial Assistance Package for Ukraine (2024-2027)
- Total Package: $54 Billion
- Loans: $35.8 Billion
- Grants: $18.4 Billion
Despite these pressing needs, the EU has unanimously endorsed a financial assistance package for Ukraine spanning 2024 to 2027. European Council President Charles Michel declared on February 1 that all 27 EU member states have ratified a support package valued at 50 billion euros (approximately $54 billion), comprising 33 billion euros (around $35.8 billion) in loans and 17 billion euros (approximately $18.4 billion) in grants.
Ukraine’s Rise in the Global Drone Market
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are pivotal in warfare, serving as weaponry, reconnaissance assets, and sources of propaganda material. Impressively, Ukraine has rapidly expanded its presence in this domain, with the number of private drone manufacturers soaring from 7 to 80 within a year.
Collaborating with Western allies, state-owned manufacturers in Ukraine have swiftly adapted to the evolving landscape. Notably, Ukrainian firm Antonov inaugurated a new drone center in September 2023 and unveiled plans to strengthen its UAV production capacities through a partnership with France’s Turgis and Gaillard.
Additionally, long-standing Ukrainian drone producer Turkish Baykar has commenced construction of a production facility in Ukraine, encompassing assembly lines, composite manufacturing, and an envisaged engine unit.
To conclude, Ukraine’s main priorities for 2024 are: developing a high-tech system for its military forces, adopting a new approach to training and combat that considers the limitations and possibilities of its assets, and acquiring new skills and abilities for warfare as quickly as they can.
