As the world faces a turbulent era of rising tensions and clashes, NATO launches its biggest exercise in decades: Exercise Steadfast Defender 24. On Wednesday, January 24, 2024, the USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), a dock landing ship, left Norfolk, Virginia, United States. It will conduct several operations before crossing the Atlantic. This Exercise, which marks the largest military drill since the Cold War, aims to demonstrate NATO’s readiness and resolve in a challenging environment.
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The world is witnessing some key flashpoints. While some regions like the Middle East and Ukraine open war wages, other regions, like the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait are becoming increasingly ‘hot’. The war in Gaza has evolved and spread beyond the boundaries of Palestine and Israel and has evolved into a regional war with proxies. The war in Ukraine sees Russia making gains against a NATO-backed Ukraine, albeit at a steep price in casualties. The shift in policy by North Korea regarding the South has greatly heightened the possibility of war. China, on the other hand, is moving steadfastly towards its ‘One China’ goal as Taiwan militarizes in preparation for what seems like an inevitable confrontation. From Europe, to Middle East to Asia; if one analyses the threads of these conflicts, a pattern emerges that paints a picture of a world that is seemingly heading toward war.
Europe
Steadfast Defender- Exercise or Preparation for an Inevitable War?
Steadfast Defender is the first exercise of its scale since the end of the Cold War. According to NATO statement, “Steadfast Defender 2024 will demonstrate our ability to deploy forces rapidly from North America and other parts of the Alliance to reinforce the defense of Europe. It will show that we can conduct and sustain complex multi-domain operations over several months, across thousands of kilometres, from the High North to Central and Eastern Europe, and in any conditions. It will be a clear demonstration of our transatlantic unity and strength and our determination to continue to do all that is necessary to protect each other, our values, and the rules-based international order.”
The largest NATO exercise in decades. A clear demonstration of our unity, our strength and our determination to protect each other”
– General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander, NATO
The last line, in particular, is telling. It essentially highlights what the exercise is truly meant for a possible defensive confrontation with Russia. Royal Netherlands Navy Admiral Rob Bauer, who chairs the NATO Military Committee, warned that the governments and populations of NATO countries should ready themselves for a larger war with Russia, which he said will demand a major large-scale mobilization of the populations and industrial capacities of NATO member states over the next two decades. The exercise follows
Germany Rearms, Poland Follows
On the day Russia invaded Ukraine, Lieutenant General Alfons Mais took to his LinkedIn account. “The Bundeswehr, the army that I have the privilege to lead,” he wrote, “is more or less broke. The options that we can offer the government to use in support of the [NATO] alliance is extremely limited.” The Bundeswehr (German Army) faced a severe shortage of modern tanks as of last February 2023. Only forty of them were available, while most of its helicopters were inoperable. The navy also struggled with insufficient ships, which jeopardized its current and future operations.
Germany created a special €100 billion fund to upgrade its military. Next year, it hopes to achieve the NATO goal of spending 2% of its GDP on defense, a standard it has often missed. By the end of this decade, Germany intends to reach this level through its normal budget.
€30 billion of the €100 billion has already been earmarked for major purchases. New German procurement includes 123 Leopard 2A8 Main battle Tanks, 579 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, at least 503 Boxer MRAVs; Airbus A400M transports as well as additional Eurofighter Typhoon and F35 fighters. Further, the German Navy is going to build 4-6 new F126 class frigates, new spy ships, support vessels and additional Type 212 submarines in an enlarged version.
As regional tensions escalate due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Poland is investing nearly $24 billion in weapons to boost its security. Warsaw has expressed its solidarity with Kyiv, while Belarus, its neighbor, has aligned with Moscow.
The massive rearmament program covers a wide range of military equipment, such as 48 batteries of the Patriot air defense system from the US, parts for the Narew short-range air defense system, and two Naval Rocket Units. Poland also plans to acquire 96 Apache helicopters, as well as hundreds of tanks and rocket launchers from South Korea and the US.
Signs of Europe Preparing for War
The rise in defense spending and military exercise signals an increasingly alarmed Europe. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europeans think the possibility that Russia could attack NATO territory has grown more likely. This has led to a shift in thinking and mentality. With everything from military spending to civilian forethought including a possible war in its calculation.
According to political scientist Christian Mölling, road construction is a crucial issue for Germany’s military readiness. He stated that many of the existing roads and bridges in the country are not strong enough to carry tanks and other heavy military equipment. Therefore, he said, Germany needs to invest in upgrading its infrastructure. This line of thinking harkens back to the days of WWII when the autobahn was, while designed overtly as a means of modern highway, in reality it was meant to provide a large enough artery for German mechanized warfare.
A report by Mölling, the head of the German Council on Foreign Relations’ Security and Defense Center, has shocked Berlin’s leaders. It showed that NATO’s military might could crumble in five years if they do not boost their arms. Russia could then threaten them without fear.
The presentation of such reports and the highlighted reaction amongst leaders paint a picture of an increasingly anxious Western Europe that is worried about a possible “Red Blitzkriek”- the kind of overwhelming armored warfare that NATO feared would take place if the Cold war went hot.
Middle East
On Fire Since the Arab Spring
Ever since the Obama and Hillary sponsored toppling of Gaddafi and their support for rebels in Syria; the middle east has been burning. The Arab Spring resulted in the long winter that was the rise of ISIS. The result was a blizzard that not only engulfed the region into chaos and anarchy; but saw the birth of a terrorist “caliphate” that even Al-Qaeda termed “cruel”.
ISIS spread like cancer across the Middle East, with its deadly tentacles reaching all across the globe in fatal terror attacks. While the caliphate is no more, the shadow of ISIS looms over the world as Obama’s legacy. The latest war in Gaza has only added further fuel to this fire.
The War in Gaza
The war in Gaza sees a sledgehammer being used to beat an ant. With Israeli forces using overwhelming firepower against a large civilian population. The war has reacted the Middle East; with regional proxies getting involved as Houthis retaliate against shipping in the Red Sea while its patron Iran recently directly attacked what it claims was an “Israeli spy site” in Syria.
Hezbollah too has been firing rockets inside Israel, with the latter threatening an invasion of Lebanon in retaliation. The increasingly bellicose rhetoric in the region; along with the already chaotic situation in the region (thanks to the devastation wrought by the Arab Spring and ISIS) sees the risk of the Middle East being pushed over the edge into the cusp of a raging firestorm.
The fact that some reports are claiming that Iran is weeks away from an atomic bomb only adds to the tension. The Middle East is not only one of the largest, if not the largest producer of hydrocarbon energy; it is also the site of one of the most crucial geographical choke points in the world- the Suez Canal. If a full-fledged war engulfs the region, the economic and humanitarian consequences will be catastrophic.
Asia
The Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s diplomacy changed dramatically in 2023-2024. It sought closer ties with China and Russia, but the most radical change was its stance on South Korea. Pyongyang declared in January 2024 that it no longer pursued reunification with the South. Instead, it adopted a hostile approach, altering its policies and institutions to regard the South as a foreign adversary.
In a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he no longer saw the South as a “partner of reconciliation and reunification,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
In a move that signals a hardening of his stance towards South Korea, Kim has instructed his regime to amend the North’s constitution and erase any mention of “peaceful reunification” and “great national unity”. This will affect all media outlets, online platforms, and public monuments in the country. Additionally, Kim will shut down three ministries that deal with unification and inter-Korean tourism, further reducing the prospects of dialogue and cooperation.
“We can specify in our constitution the issue of completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming the ROK and annexing it as a part of the territory of our republic in case a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula”
– Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea
Analysts say that the North’s foreign ministry may take charge of the inter-Korean affairs, and use this as a pretext to justify its nuclear ambitions in a future war with Seoul. This breaks with decades of policy.
U.S. officials warn that Kim Jong-un may resort to some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the next few months. They say that Kim has adopted a policy of open hostility and that his statements have become more aggressive than ever before.
The officials do not foresee an immediate threat of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, but they caution that Kim may launch strikes that he believes would not trigger a major escalation.
They cite the 2010 incident, when North Korea shelled a South Korean Island, as an example. The attack sparked a brief exchange of artillery fire, which killed soldiers and civilians on both sides, but the conflict was quickly contained.
The overall atmosphere in the Korean Peninsula is highly tense. A particular concern of escalation is due to the War in Ukraine. If the West fails in Ukraine and Russia emerges victorious, analysts fear that Kim might interpret it as an indication of ‘America in decline’ and potentially escalate the conflict.
China and Taiwan
Across the Taiwan strait, tensions simmer but do not boil, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress that China has a six-year plan to conquer and occupy Taiwan. However, he told Congress that this does not mean China will act soon. He based his statement on the testimonies of two U.S. admirals who oversee the Indo-Pacific region. They said that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had given this deadline to his army.
Milley said congressional testimony earlier this year from former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander Adm. Phil Davidson and current INDOPACOM commander Adm. John Aquilino that China was preparing to take Taiwan within the next six years was based on comments Chinese leader Xi Jinping made to the People’s Liberation Army.
Conclusion
The above events, if viewed individually, seem unconnected. However, if one connects the dots, the links become evident. The Russo-Ukrainian war has brought a conventional conflict to the shores of Europe for the first time since WWII; with an uncompromising Putin heading the Russian bear while the American Eagle shies away from a more overt involvement. The slow reaction from the US and NATO, their initial hesitance in providing lethal aid to Ukraine is likely being seen as a sign of weakness by the rest of the world.
