The seismic shift in Hispanic voter preferences, foreboding a disquieting trend for Democratic President Joe Biden, sets the stage as he anticipates a potential rematch with Trump in November 2024. Hispanics, historically aligned with the Democratic Party and constituting almost a fifth of the U.S. electorate, wield significant influence, particularly in pivotal swing states. Arizona, prominently positioned as a battleground, amplifies this influence, with each vote carrying immense weight.
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The looming specter of this electoral paradigm shift materializes vividly in a projected visualization of ongoing construction at the San Luis Port of Entry in heavily Hispanic Yuma County. This construction, funded by President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, symbolizes the political and infrastructural undercurrents shaping Arizona’s future. Against this evolving narrative, a tight race emerges, intensifying the stakes in a state where the outcome could be determinative.
Inflation, Jobs, and Economy Top Concerns for Hispanic Voters
In the political mosaic of Arizona, where a third of the population is Hispanic, the battleground is defined by a state President Biden narrowly won by 10,000 votes in the last presidential race. Within this complex tapestry, the southwest district serves as a microcosm. Here, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 12 percent—a testament to the shifting tides in this diverse electorate.
The seismic reverberations extend beyond state lines, evidenced by Trump’s national share of Hispanic voters surging by 8 percentage points to 36 percent in 2020, according to the non-partisan Pew Research Center. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey of almost 800 Hispanic adults this month further accentuates this shift, revealing Trump’s narrow lead over Biden at 38 percent to 37 percent. The precision of the survey results, marked by a credibility interval of about 4 percentage points in either direction, underscores the delicacy of this political recalibration.
Hispanic Voter Demographics:
- Percentage of Hispanics in the U.S. electorate: Nearly one-fifth
- Historical alignment with Democratic Party
Ruy Teixeira, a seasoned Democratic political analyst with an extensive study of Hispanic voting trends, sounds an alarm, citing substantial evidence of a weakening Democratic support among Hispanics since the 2016 elections. Teixeira critiques the Democratic focus, contending that the emphasis on issues like voting rights and Trump’s perceived threat to democracy misses the mark. “They are dancing around the number one issue — high prices,” he declares. “It’s not what working-class voters want out of a political party.”
This sentiment finds resonance in a November survey by UnidosUS, the largest Latino non-profit advocacy group, which identifies inflation, jobs, and the economy as the paramount concerns for Hispanic voters. Democrats, however, staunchly reject allegations of misplaced priorities, pointing to substantial investments by the Biden campaign in the 2020 election and the Democratic Party in the 2022 congressional elections. Ads strategically aired in key states emphasize issues such as job growth and the improvement of the economy for working families.
Hispanic Voter Demographics:
- Percentage of Hispanics in the U.S. electorate: Nearly one-fifth
- Historical alignment with Democratic Party
Strategic Door-Knocking and ‘Tamale Bills’
In a bid to court Hispanic voters, Michele Pena, a Republican candidate with no political pedigree, strategically adopted a campaign approach honed by Republicans over the years: immersing herself in working-class neighborhoods, saturating the airwaves with Spanish-language TV and radio ads, establishing Spanish-speaking offices, and endeavoring to persuade voters that Republicans held the key to improving their lives. This playbook took center stage as the Republican National Committee inaugurated Hispanic community centers in 19 states in 2022, including two in Arizona, where volunteers were diligently trained to engage in door-knocking and phone outreach—in Spanish.
Arizona became a crucible for the GOP’s tailored strategy, championing legislation designed to resonate with working-class Hispanics. The much-debated “Tamale bill,” aimed at relaxing regulations surrounding the sale of homemade food, garnered support from Arizona Republicans, only to be vetoed by the state’s Democratic governor citing health and safety concerns.
Pena, the torchbearer of this Republican narrative, traversed hundreds of doors in working-class areas, advocating for improvements in schools, reductions in prices, and a commitment to family values. Her interactions unveiled concerns from voters about certain social policies championed by Democrats, including the contentious issue of gender-neutral bathrooms in schools. Pena’s candidacy itself was a revelation—a fresh perspective for voters unaccustomed to extended conversations with Republican candidates.
The denouement unfolded with Pena’s electoral triumph, a seismic event in Arizona’s political landscape. The unexpected win disrupted Democratic expectations, as Republicans not only secured a seat but prevented a 30-30 tie in the state House of Representatives, preserving their majority. Pena’s victory, achieved by a slender margin of just over 3,000 votes, equating to 4 percent of the total, underscored the potency of the Republican strategy.
Republican National Committee’s 2022 Initiatives:
- 19 Hispanic community centers in 2022
- Two in Arizona
- Training volunteers for door-knocking and phone outreach
Trump’s Words, Biden’s Actions, and the Shifting Sands
Democratic analyst Teixeira acknowledges a pivotal misstep in recent election cycles—a presumption that Hispanic voters would uniformly perceive Trump and fellow Republicans’ stringent stance on illegal immigration as inherently racist. Teixeira highlights a nuanced reality, asserting that significant segments of the Hispanic population, particularly working-class Hispanics, harbor concerns about illegal immigration, finding it unsettling.
Contrary to the assumption that Trump’s rhetoric would universally alienate Hispanic voters, an exploration in Yuma County, encompassing part of Pena’s district, unraveled a diverse sentiment. Among a dozen Hispanic voters interviewed, none deemed Trump’s rhetoric about illegal Mexican immigrants, once characterized as murderers and rapists, as inherently racist or xenophobic. Their focus pivoted sharply to the tangible concerns at hand, particularly soaring prices that many attributed to President Biden. In this snapshot of Yuma County, six of the interviewed individuals plan to cast their vote for Trump, while the rest remain undecided. A common thread emerges among the group: a demand for effective border control, with eight expressing support for a border wall to keep illegal immigrants out.
San Luis, with its juxtaposition of expansive modern stores like Walmart and myriad small Spanish-language establishments, embodies the complex dynamics at play. Alma Cuevas, a 56-year-old retired school librarian who migrated from Mexico to the U.S. at the age of one, epitomizes this complexity. As an independent voter, she remains undecided about the upcoming election but harbors reservations about supporting Biden. In her perception, Biden has faltered in addressing the influx of migrants across the border. Economically, she harkens back to a sense of prosperity during Trump’s presidency, leading her to lean towards Trump as a prospective choice.
