India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has recorded a landslide win in the state polls ahead of the crucial general elections next year.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP swept three of four states that went to polls in the last week of November.
More than 160 million people or a sixth of India’s electorate had been eligible to vote in the polls.
While the BJP won big in the three Hindi-speaking heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, the main opposition Congress won the southern state of Telangana.
The results were announced on 3 December. Counting of votes for a fifth state, Mizoram in northeast India, is due on Monday.
Boost for Modi
The 3-1 victory of Sunday has further solidified PM Modi’s position as an immensely popular leader in India.
The results are particularly significant because BJP has traditionally not fared well in regional elections and is generally seen as a central ruling party under PM Modi.
Did these elections serve as a litmus test for Modi’s prospects in securing a third term next year?
Analysts think so.
“As the face of the BJP, (Modi) yet again proved that he is the biggest vote-catcher for the saffron party,” writes political journalist Ashok Tuteja in The Statesman. “His popularity has not diminished one bit even after over nine years in office.”
Speaking to PressXpress, Yogendra Yadav, political activist and leader of the Swaraj India political party, said it is a “setback” to all those who want to see a change in the country in 2024. “The fact is that in terms of morale, in terms of perception, in terms of cadre thinking, and overall mood in the country, these results would impact the Congress and the entire opposition of the country.”
“In the battle of perceptions, the BJP has successfully won the hearts of the voters and surged ahead of the Congress as a party with a decisive leadership,” observed political analyst Sanjay Kumar, professor and co-director of Lokniti, a research program at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
“Modi ki Guarantee”
The prime minister was at the centre of the BJP’s campaign in the state polls with the slogan, “Modi’s guarantee”, which used Modi’s brand appeal as delivering on the promises made by local as well as national leaders of the ruling party.
On the ground, the recent success of the G20 summit, which translated to Modi’s extraordinary popularity among world leaders, also became a crucial factor in swaying voting sentiments.
“Elections are fundamentally also about momentum, narrative, and emotion,” said Nalin Mehta, non-resident senior fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore. “If this (win) was the state-level impact when Modi was only metaphorically on the ticket, it only highlights how much of an uphill battle the Congress will face when Modi is literally on the ticket in 2024!” he wrote in an article published on Money Control.
According to Praveen Khandelwal, Secretary General of Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), it is “Brand Modi” that has brought victory to the BJP in the state or assembly election.
Khandelwal told PressXpress that this is just a “rehearsal of 2024” general election. He added that on behalf of traders across the country, he wants to express that the trading community is now “strongly hopeful of new opportunities for doing business” in Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh – states where the BJP has won.
However, the Congress Party has downplayed its performance saying it’s not “very behind” the BJP in terms of vote share. According to Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh, their performance is actually within “striking distance” of the BJP. That means, we still have reason for hope and revival, he said in an official statement released to PressXpress.
Road to 2024
While the opposition analyses its defeat in the state polls, BJP is already on the job, preparing grounds for the party for the general election next year.
Its biggest strength is in organising the party cadre, the foot soldiers, and ensuring there is no complacency after the recent win. With more than 180 million members, the party is the largest political party in the world and works carefully to manage its electoral techniques as well as voter outreach campaigns.
Moreover, PM Modi with his “work ethics, past record and vision” has truly convinced the voter about his dream of making Bharat a developed country, says Shishir Gupta, writer and author in an article in Hindustan Times.
In fact, the state and the national level elections are both completely “Modi-fied”, says Dr Suvrokamal Dutta, acclaimed international political, economic and foreign policy expert. “During the state election rallies, PM Modi asked the voters to vote for the party, not the candidate,” Dr Dutta told PressXpress.
That was a major factor in turning the vote around. What also worked was PM Modi’s credibility in delivering on his promises – not just before election, but consistently, including before, during, and after the Covid pandemic.
But the road to 2024 is much more challenging with nearly one billion voters set to choose their next leader. Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and PM Narendra Modi are the three main faces that most voters see at the national level.
Dismissing the comparison with the Gandhi siblings, Dr Dutta told PressXpress, “The grand grandmother of Indian politics, Sonia Gandhi may continue to try to re-package her two toddlers on a global platform. However, it is clear that she will again fail miserably, as one can see from the result of the state polls. She should realise that they prefer going to parties rather than serving the nation,” he said, adding that as the parliament’s winter session begins, Rahul Gandhi has gone off for a long holiday to southeast Asia.
“What does this speak of his commitment to the electorate?”
– Dr Dutta
“This kind of switch on and off politics doesn’t work in a complex electorate like India’s. On the other hand, PM Modi has now risen to an unimaginable level of popularity, which is clearly beyond comprehension or comparison to any other political wannabe in Bharat.”
Meanwhile, before the general election, the next round of state polls will also be held in 2024. These will include the northeastern states of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, the eastern state of Odisha, and the southern Andhra Pradesh state. The assembly election is also pending in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
