Concerns about terrorist attacks, strategic rivalries among global superpowers, and non-traditional threats like piracy have heightened anxieties regarding the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific region for all nations.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has significantly increased its nuclear arsenal in the past year, surpassing 500 operational warheads and aiming to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to a US Department of Defense report.
The report highlights that China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces, exceeding previous efforts in scale and complexity. President Xi Jinping’s goal of achieving a “world-class” military by 2049 is a driving force behind this expansion.
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Furthermore, China has constructed three new solid-propellant silo fields, including over 300 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos, and is deploying longer-range JL-3 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) with the capability to reach the US. The report also suggests China may be developing conventionally-armed intercontinental-range missile systems that could threaten targets in the continental United States.
But It’s important to note that China’s nuclear strategy is primarily based on deterrence, aiming to prevent an enemy’s first strike, and if deterrence fails, they would consider a counterstrike to retaliate against an adversary’s military capability, population, and economy.
China’s Growing Assertiveness in The Indo-Pacific Region
The Pentagon report highlights China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. It notes over 180 instances of Chinese military intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the past two years, surpassing the previous decade. These actions involve laser use, skillful maneuvers, safe approaches, maintaining distances, and deploying countermeasures. Concurrently, China conducted approximately 100 secure operations to support U.S. allies and partners in the region.
India advocates for an open Indo-Pacific region based on international norms, encompassing the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the South China Sea. China claims most of the disputed South China Sea though Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam all claim parts of it, leading to conflicts with neighboring countries. China’s increasing assertiveness has contributed to tensions with the United States and other nations in the region.
China and Russia’s Budding Friendship
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) considers its “unlimited” partnership with Russia crucial for its development and status as a major global power. However, it has discreetly supported Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, seeking to strike a balance between its strategic ties with Russia and potential reputational and economic costs. The Defense Department’s report indicates that China is drawing lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Additionally, China has become a substantial purchaser of Russian energy exports, aiding Russia’s economy in the face of sanctions and ensuring Russia’s continued participation in international organizations. This development coincides with a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where they emphasized close foreign policy coordination. Both leaders pledged to enhance comprehensive strategic cooperation in several areas, including some of a confidential nature. This partnership is influenced by concerns about conflicts with the West due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s increasing tensions related to Taiwan.
Why the Indo-Pacific Area is Crucial for China?
In the current context, the Indo-Pacific Region (IOR) has assumed a pivotal role for countries like India, China, the United States, and all nations within the Indo-Pacific area. They are striving to establish ‘strategic leverage’ to enhance their geopolitical influence and reshape the dynamics of international politics. The primary motivation behind seeking a strategic advantage in this region lies in its remarkable concentration of three out of the world’s eight major oil and gas reserves. Approximately 70% of the global oil and gas reserves are concentrated within the IOR.
“Resources always serve as a logical starting point for geopolitics, and the sourcing and transportation of oil, a critical resource for any modern economy, become imperative for security considerations.”
– Cuiping Zhu, Deputy Director, Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economies (RIIO), Yunnan University, China
Furthermore, beyond the oil and gas resources, the IOR’s coastal states, including Africa, possess abundant reserves of strategic raw materials such as uranium, gold, diamonds, tin, coal, iron ore, tungsten, and manganese. These resources are equally vital for fueling the Chinese economy, which is on the verge of surpassing the U.S. economy in the near future.
Equally crucial is the fact that the IOR’s coastal states, particularly China, face a significant concern due to specific geographical features that create choke points at the Malacca, Sunda, and Lombak Straits, intersecting the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs). Along these routes, China imports its oil from West Asia and North Africa and exports its manufactured products to numerous countries situated within the IOR. China’s dependence on energy security makes this an indispensable priority. Additionally, the northwestern section of the IOR, the Persian Gulf region, stands as the world’s largest oil producer and supplier, contributing to one-third of global oil production. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the primary passage for transporting this oil out of the region, accounting for 45% of the world’s total export volume.
These straits provide China with essential connectivity to West Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, where nations are primary markets for Chinese goods. The trade volume between China and these five IOR regions has doubled from USD 47 billion to USD 86.63 billion, underscoring its strategic significance for China.
Most notably, concerns about terrorist attacks, strategic rivalries among global superpowers, and non-traditional threats like piracy have heightened anxieties regarding the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific region for all nations. Recognizing the enduring importance of this region since ancient times, China has consistently invested substantial efforts to bolster its geopolitical influence within it.
In conclusion, China’s significant nuclear expansion, growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, and strategic partnership with Russia underscore its pursuit of global power. The Indo-Pacific’s rich resources and vital sea routes amplify its importance on the global stage.
