As President Joe Biden officially kicks off his re-election campaign, there is growing speculation about a potential rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump. The possibility of this rematch is reinforced by the findings of a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on last April, which indicates that two-thirds of Republicans would still support Trump even if he were found guilty of a crime.
Despite the on-going criminal investigations into Trump, including charges he faces in New York, the NPR poll highlights that these matters hold little sway among Republicans. Notably, 71% of Republicans surveyed expressed support for Trump to be president again, while even in the event of a criminal conviction, that figure only drops by 8 points to 63%.
Crimes of Trump in question
It is worth mentioning that Trump faces multiple criminal investigations, extending beyond the charges in New York. Federal investigations are underway concerning his handling of classified documents during his time in the White House and his actions surrounding the January 6th insurrection. Furthermore, a separate investigation in Georgia is examining his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, which he lost. In addition, jury selection for a civil sexual assault and defamation lawsuit, initiated by writer E. Jean Carroll, who accuses Trump of raping her in a New York department store changing room during the 1990s, commenced on April. Over a dozen women have made sexual assault allegations against Trump.
Despite the serious legal issues surrounding Trump, the NPR poll suggests that these concerns hold little weight within the Republican party, with a significant majority (63% to 71%) expressing their desire for Trump to assume the presidency once again.
Loyal Republicans hold strong backing for Trump
Paul, a 22-year-old resident of Bergen County, N.J., also participated in the poll and expressed his intention to vote for Trump even if he were found guilty of a crime. Paul, who preferred not to disclose his last name, dismisses the numerous allegations against Trump, claiming that past presidents have faced more serious charges. He supports Trump based on his economic policies and his stance on international affairs, considering Republicans to be the “lesser of two evils.”
When questioned about voting for Trump if he were convicted of a crime, Paul stated that although he wouldn’t prefer it under normal circumstances, it would require an extreme scenario like eight past presidents being indicted for war crimes to establish a precedent. These sentiments are not uncommon among attendees of Trump rallies but do not align with the views of the majority of Americans.
The poll indicates that 64% of respondents do not want Trump to be president again, and that percentage increases to 70% if he is convicted of a crime. Nevertheless, the unwavering support from a significant number of rank-and-file Republicans demonstrates Trump’s stronghold on the GOP base, positioning him as the front-runner for the Republican nomination once again. Trump, who faced two impeachment proceedings during his tenure, has consistently criticized and undermined investigations into his conduct by dismissing them as “witch hunts” and “Deep State” conspiracies.
Despite Trump’s ability to persuade GOP voters with his baseless allegations, there is a significant disconnect with persuadable voters, making his chances of winning a general election uncertain. Only 29% of independents, a crucial group for Republicans, believe he should be president again. Furthermore, a majority of respondents expressed a desire for Trump to drop out of the race based solely on the 34-count indictment in New York, with 58% advocating for his withdrawal and 41% suggesting he should continue.
However, it is important to note that these figures reflect respondents’ opinions about Trump in general, as similar ranges have been observed when evaluating his approval rating as president, favourability rating, and whether he should drop out. Three-quarters of Republicans maintain their support for Trump to continue his campaign, underscoring his strong position in the GOP primary, particularly since no other strong alternative candidate has fully emerged at this point.
Support increased in all demography
It’s worth noting that the poll reveals potential increases in support for Trump among certain demographic groups compared to the 2020 election. For instance, 27% of Black respondents expressed their intention to vote for Trump, compared to the 12% support he received in 2020. Among Hispanic respondents, 43% stated they would definitely or probably support Trump or lean in that direction, an increase from the 32% support he garnered three years ago.
Black and Hispanic respondents who were interviewed further elaborated on their support for Trump. They acknowledged difficulties in relating to voters of colour but rejected the notion that Trump’s past comments about immigrants and lawmakers of colour were racist. Some highlighted the importance of legal immigration and believed Trump was taking the right approach, despite the harshness of his language. Others emphasised that Trump had accomplished positive things and appreciated his focus on issues that resonated with them.
Other surveys echoing the same
In a different survey, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, 51% of the 1,006 adults surveyed identified Trump as their preferred 2024 Republican nominee, while his nearest opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, garnered 25% support. Additionally, when undecided adults were asked to lean towards a candidate, 49% stated they would back Trump in a general election against President Joe Biden, compared to 42% who supported Biden.
Interestingly, Trump’s supporters include individuals who believe he has broken the law. Among respondents who believe Trump should face criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, 18% still expressed their inclination to vote for him.
While it’s important to note that polls have been inaccurate in the past, recent surveys like the one conducted by ABC News do reflect the sentiments of voters, even if they may seem contradictory. However, the poll was conducted prior to a jury finding Trump liable in a case brought by E. Jean Carroll, alleging he raped her and subsequently defamed her by denying the assault.
Why the unwavering support?
Follow-up interviews with several poll respondents revealed unwavering support for Trump from a portion of the GOP base, despite his controversies and defeats. Even among those who are not firmly committed to supporting Trump in the primary, financial concerns encourage them to overlook his legal troubles and support him in a hypothetical rematch against Biden.
The poll results indicate that a majority of American adults (54-36%) believe Trump handled the economy better during his presidency compared to Biden’s performance thus far. These sentiments persist despite Biden’s efforts to navigate the country’s recovery from the initial impact of COVID-19, including achieving low unemployment rates, although inflation remains high.
Other respondents voiced concerns about Biden’s foreign policy, particularly regarding international aid, while praising Trump’s approach to reducing foreign entanglements through his rhetoric.
