The forthcoming NATO summit will be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12 to discuss the disagreements over Sweden’s admission and Ukraine’s membership ambition, as well as increasing ammunition stocks and evaluating the first defense plans in decades. The 31 NATO leaders attending the summit in the small Baltic state include the leaders of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea as well as the European Union.
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It will be the fourth NATO summit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the first held virtually on Feb. 25, 2022. As the war in Ukraine approaches a crucial phase amid Kyiv’s counteroffensive and rising unrest in Moscow, the summit comes at a crucial time for NATO and European security.
Let’s delve into the key points on what will be on the NATO summit’s agenda at Vilnius-
Will Ukraine get membership in NATO?
At the upcoming summit in Vilnius, NATO leaders will discuss Ukraine’s potential membership. While Ukraine desires membership, it will not be granted as long as the conflict with Russia persists. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made it plain that Kyiv will not become a member while the war rages, and that a formal invitation will not be extended at the Vilnius summit.
There are divergent opinions among NATO allies regarding the timeline and conditions for Ukraine’s accession. At the summit, Eastern European nations advocate for a membership road map, emphasizing Ukraine’s contributions to NATO’s deterrence against Russian aggression. To prevent further escalation, the United States and Germany approach the issue with caution. A British proposal for bypassing the Membership Action Plan (MAP) program has garnered support, which speeds up the accession procedure.
The summit seeks to strike a balance between supporting Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union and avoiding actions that could escalate tensions with Russia. Thus, concrete results are needed to avoid a repeat of the Bucharest summit’s failure.
NATO to support Ukraine’s defense?
The provision of security guarantees or assurances to Ukraine, which has been at war with Russia for 17 months, will be the subject of debate. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “At the summit, we will make Ukraine even stronger, and set out a vision for its future.”
A multi-year program of assistance will be agreed upon to enhance interoperability between the Ukrainian armed forces and NATO. The formation of a NATO-Ukraine Council will facilitate crisis discussions, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy participating in its inaugural meeting.
Stoltenberg said the leaders “will reaffirm that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and unite on how to bring Ukraine closer to its goal.” However, there are differing opinions regarding when and how Ukraine should participate, with some allies arguing that Ukraine should not be invited while at war in order to prevent an escalation of the conflict. NATO urges its allies to increase their military expenditures in response to Ukraine’s request for more arms and ammunition. The issue of providing Ukraine with security guarantees against future Russian aggression will also be discussed, along with whether these guarantees should be provided within or outside of NATO.
Talks on Sweden’s pending membership at NATO Summit
The due NATO summit in Vilnius is expected to address a number of issues pertaining to member admission. Sweden, seeking to join as the 32nd member, faces objections from Turkey and Hungary. Turkey accused Sweden of harboring militant group members and demands action prior to admittance. Uncertainty surrounds Hungary’s worries. While Hungary may be compelled to withdraw, Turkey’s position poses a greater obstacle.
After the Madrid summit, it was anticipated that efforts would be made to relieve objections, but Turkish President Erdogan demands the extradition of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) members and the prevention of pro-PKK rallies.
Sweden has addressed Turkey’s concerns by enacting anti-terrorism legislation and lifting an arms embargo, among other measures. However, coercing Erdogan remains challenging. To resolve the impasse, Erdogan, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg are scheduled to hold discussions. NATO expansion requires the approval of all 31 members, making Turkey’s opposition a significant factor at the summit.
Focus on defense spending and investment
The NATO summit in Vilnius will also address a number of crucial defense expenditure and investment issues. Since the Ukraine conflict, NATO defense spending has increased considerably, with European allies investing reportedly a third more in defense since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.
At the summit, new spending goals will be discussed, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has urged allies to view the 2 percent of GDP spending objective as a minimum rather than a maximum. Only seven countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, and Lithuania, currently meet the target. The summit will also place an emphasis on defense innovation, with the implementation of the Defense Innovation Accelerator and the adoption of a Defense Production Action Plan to increase manufacturing capacity among allies.
In addition, there will be discussions about increasing the alliance’s target for military expenditure to at least 2 percent of national GDP, with the intention of making this a permanent obligation for all 31 allies. As of 2023, only eleven allies achieve the previous 2 percent goal, while others, including Canada, Slovenia, Turkey, Spain, Belgium, and Luxembourg, have defense spending below 1.4 percent of GDP. The summit will seek to resolve these issues and bolster NATO’s collective defense capabilities.
NATO leaders to approve post-cold war defense plans against Russia
NATO leaders are going to review and ratify the alliance’s first defense plans since the end of the cold war, which outline the alliance’s response to a potential Russian attack. These regional plans reportedly represent a significant transition, as NATO offers member nations guidance on enhancing their forces and logistics. The resurgence of expansive defense plans reflects the urgency of the situation, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine serving as a stark reminder of the importance of being prepared.
The approval of the plans has been hindered by Turkey’s objections regarding the wording related to geographical locations like Cyprus, a matter that may be addressed during the summit. In addition, NATO will increase its ammunition stockpile goals due to Ukraine’s accelerated consumption of shells, which exceeds the production capabilities of Western nations. Alongside these efforts, allies will be showing their dedication to the NATO objective of having over 300,000 forces on high alert, a significant increase from the previous level of 40,000, in order to counter Russian threats.
Talks on new secretary-general for NATO?
Jens Stoltenberg’s tenure as secretary-general is likely to be extended at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. Although Stoltenberg initially stated that he would not seek a second extension, the lack of consensus among allies has led to discussions about extending his term until the 75th anniversary summit of NATO in Washington.
Some allies advocated for the appointment of the first female secretary-general, with potential candidates including Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. The ultimate decision regarding the secretary-general position will be made prior to or during the summit in Vilnius.
Some experts are doubting the NATO summit to be a flop
As Ukraine pursues immediate NATO membership or implementable security guarantees, the situation in Ukraine remains complicated. However, Ukraine’s position has been weakened by its unsuccessful counteroffensive against Russia and its attempts to destabilize the region. Due to economic difficulties, social unrest, and political instability, Europe is hesitant to provide Ukraine with extensive support.
Significant obstacles stand in the way of US President Biden’s attempt to pressure European allies for more assistance, including NATO members’ reluctance to engage in a larger conflict with Russia. The dispute regarding Ukraine’s air power and advanced aircraft has the potential to escalate the conflict. Existing NATO defense plans are being reviewed, reflecting the alliance’s shift in emphasis since the end of the Cold War. In addition, the effectiveness of NATO’s tripwire strategy and the need for revised defense strategies are under scrutiny. The lack of progress in negotiating a security arrangement with Russia adds to the complexity of the situation.
Overall, how NATO’s upcoming summit develops will be intriguing to observe. Vilnius will likely be a propagandistic performance and the outcome of the summit remains uncertain, raising questions about its effectiveness in addressing the complexities of the current security landscape.
