The month of May 2023 may be marked as significant in political history for several elections held in different countries. On the 4th of May, local government elections were held in 230 councils in England, popularly known as the birthplace of democracy. Though these were local elections, the results provided a snapshot of the strength of political parties and the popularity of the parties among the general voters.
Local Council Election in England
Since 2010, the Conservative Party has held power in the Parliament. In the past 12 years, five leaders of this party have served as Prime Ministers, some for 55 days and some for 6 years 64 days. In the latest local election, the ruling Conservative Party, despite winning 89 councils in the 2019 local government elections, saw a decrease to 33 councils. On the other hand, their main opponent, the Labour Party, increased their council wins from 57 in 2019 to 71 in 2023. Analyzing the number of seats, it can be seen that the ruling Conservative Party lost 1063 seats in the election of 8025 seats. Their opponent Labour Party’s seats increased by 537 while the Liberal Democratic Party by 460 seats.
YOU CAN ALSO READ: TURKISH GENERAL ELECTION: ERDOGAN TO ENTER THIRD DECADE IN POWER
Analysing the local government elections, political analyst Katy Balls of The Guardian noted that although the voters have shifted their focus away from the Conservatives, they haven’t fully embraced the Labour Party either. Instead, they have shown some inclination towards the Liberal Democrats in the third position and even the Green Party in the fourth.
Another analyst, John Mathew Donnell, believes that voters primarily had two preferences: either to stay with known or familiar candidates or to embrace the idea of change.
The voters chose the latter. According to Donnell, the voters rejected the Conservative Party due to concerns over declining wages, contraction of various government services, and a lack of probable solutions to burning problems in the near future. Even for various reasons, they have lost faith in the opposition, the Labour Party. As a result, this support has heavily favoured the Liberal Democrats in the third position and the Green Party in the fourth.
Martin Cattell, another analyst, criticized the internal conflict within the Conservatives for the defeat in the local government elections and suggested that this result would motivate and strengthen the opposition Labour Party to challenge and eventually defeat current Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the parliamentary elections scheduled 18 months later. However, he believes that only a united opposition force can bring about a change in power.
Local Government Election in Ireland
On May 18, 2023, the local government elections were held in neighbouring Ireland. The ruling Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) faced a defeat in this local election against The Irish Nationalist Party, also known as Sinn Féin, which previously held the second position. The Irish Nationalist Party gained 144 seats out of the 462 seats.
Their vote share increased by 7.7% with 39 additional seats from the previous election. The DUP, on the other hand, retained 112 seats in the Assembly, but their vote share decreased to 8%.
Analysts believe that the DUP faced a decline in support, particularly among the youth, due to their reluctance to align with Ireland and their stance on the Brexit issue.
The noteworthy outcome of these elections is that the Alliance Party, which held the third position, gained a vote share of 3% and an additional 14 seats. Analysts firmly believe that the outcome of this election will have an impact on the formation of the subsequent government.
2023 Karnataka Legislative Assembly Election, India
In South India, out of the five states, only Karnataka was governed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi. In the elections held on May 13, 2023, the Congress defeated the BJP in Karnataka. Out of the 224 seats in the state, the Congress won 135 seats, the BJP won 66 seats, and others won 23 seats.
According to the 2011 census, 84% of the population in Karnataka are Hindus, 13% are Muslims, and less than 2% are Christians. The BJP, which beliefs in Hindutva ideology, mainly used religious sentiments during the 2018 elections and gained a driving position winning 104 seats. 10 prominent Indian media outlets conducted surveys regarding the elections. According to the surveys, in nine media outlets, the Congress was predicted to win in the upcoming elections.
However, the overconfidence of the BJP couldn’t onboard the mass through its campaigning tactics. On the other hand, the new President of the Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge, is referred to as the “24/7 politician” of Karnataka, meaning he engages in politics 24/7 and maintained constant communication with party workers, supporters, and other stakeholders prior to this election. He conducted 40 public meetings and numerous informal campaign gatherings.
The Gandhi family, especially Rahul Gandhi, the main face of the Congress, was instrumental in forging a strong alliance in the crucial region of Karnataka, garnering support from local leaders, party workers, and ordinary supporters. Mallikarjun Kharge, who was dedicated to cornering the BJP in regional politics in Karnataka was a fierce rival of another local Congress Leader Siddaramiah. Both joined hands in the election campaign Mallikarjun Kharge appointed Siddaramaiah as the Chief Minister while Siddaramaiah’s nearest competitor D. K. Shivakumar, was made the Deputy Chief Minister following a threadbare discussion.
Kharge, the brave leader of the Congress responded to Modi’s rhetorical attacks by providing an appropriate response that resonated with the general voters. He ignored Modi’s bloodshot eyes and emerged as the preferred choice among ordinary voters. He could deliver flawless political speeches in 5 local languages and played a significant role in consolidating the support of the Congress in the five regions of India.
Thai General Election 2023
The power dynamics are changing in Thailand as well. In the national election held on May 14, the currently ruling military-backed party, Palang Pracharath, secured only 40 out of 500 seats in the country’s parliament. From 2014 to 2019, Thailand had been governed by a military junta.
However, on March 24, 2019, the King’s party, Phalang Pracharat, obtained 116 seats. It is alleged that they formed a government by appeasing various small parties, regional parties, and even some independent MPs. However, the possibility of a similar outcome this time is unlikely. In the current election, the progressive “Move Forward Party” secured 151 seats, and the Future Forward Party secured 141 seats.
An alliance of both parties is expected to form a new government soon. Analysts Jessica Kigarn and Martin Kunze from the International Republican Institute claim that since 2014, the military has gained power, hindered the activities of political parties through the use of the judiciary, and marginalized the elected representatives in the administration appointing chosen administrators.
As a result, the military and the monarchy were criticized. In the eyes of Kigarn and Kunze, the 3 million new voters in Thailand, who have had the opportunity to vote for the first time, have taken a stance against corruption, abuse, political manipulation, and using the judiciary as a political weapon. This election witnessed the presence of 75% of voters, marking a new milestone. On the other hand, in the 77 provinces of Thailand, civil society, NGOs, and election observers remained vigilant and halted all avenues of manipulating the election result by releasing about 27,500 images of center-based primary results through various social media and mainstream media channels.
Turkish General Election 2023
On May 14th, the first phase of the presidential election took place in Turkey, governed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On the same day, elections were also held for the 600 seats in the National Assembly of the country. Among these 600 seats, Erdogan’s party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), won 267 seats. In the 2018 elections, the party won 295 seats.
Despite receiving 52.59% of the votes in the 2018 presidential election, Erdogan secured 49.50% of the votes in the first phase of this election as a candidate for the People’s Alliance. His closest rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the National Alliance, received 44.89% of the votes. Since no presidential candidate received more than 50% of the votes, a second round of voting was scheduled on 28 May 2023 as per the constitution. Until the end of the first phase, Erdogan and his party were confident of their victory. Despite being praised in the international community as a Muslim Leader, Erdogan faced criticism within his own country.
Among the reasons for the criticism were an unstable economy, inflation, and mismanagement in treating catastrophic earthquake victims.
His opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, gained support from a six-party opposition alliance, making the election the most challenging for Erdogan in his political career with 12 previous victories.
In the first phase, Erdogan failed to receive the magic figure of 50%. With the support on another candidate Sinan Ogan, who secured the third position with 5.17% of the votes, Erdogan, could successfully gain 52.16% votes and obtained another term as the president.
On the other hand, by demonstrating a shift from his previous stance of moderation to a more authoritarian and nationalist approach, Kemal Kilicdaroglu won over the minds of voters with a total of 47.84% of the votes in the second phase. It is reported that Erdogan and his party also enjoy significant support in Turkey’s National Assembly.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the victorious president of Turkey, has taken the oath of office. This is how democracy has prevailed in Turkey.
On the other hand, by demonstrating a shift from his previous stance of moderation to a more authoritarian and nationalist approach, Kemal Kilicdaroglu won over the minds of voters with a total of 47.84% of the votes in the second phase. It is reported that Erdogan and his party also enjoy significant support in Turkey’s National Assembly. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the victorious president of Turkey, has taken the oath of office. This is how democracy has prevailed in Turkey.
Spanish Local and Regional Elections
Local and regional elections were held in Spain on May 28 as well. After the victory of left-wing political parties in these elections against the ruling party, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced an early date for the upcoming national elections. On May 29, he declared that the national elections would be held on July 23. Six regions were won by left-wing parties in these regional elections. The People’s Party (PP), a conservative political party, is forming the government in these regions. The regional elections are seen as an indicator of what may happen in the national elections in Spain. Therefore, Pedro Sánchez made this decision based on the results of these elections. In a televised speech, Pedro said, “Based on the results of the elections, I have made this decision. As the leader of the Socialist Party and the head of the government, I take responsibility for this.” He also commented that people have mandated that the elections should be held immediately.
Pedro’s political party, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), formed a coalition with several left-wing parties, including United We Can (Unidas Podemos), in 2020. It was the first coalition government in Spain in several decades.
The political stability created by this government came to an end. However, analysts believe that the announcement of the upcoming national elections has pushed the country further ahead on the path of democracy.
Gazipur City Corporation Election 2023, Bangladesh
Now let’s turn our attention to the recently concluded election in Gazipur City Corporation. In the history of Islam, there is a saying, “Morle Shohid (martyr) -Banchle Gazi,” which means the brave warrior who returns from war is called a “Gazi.”
In this context, the term “Gazi” could be bestowed upon victorious heroes of the Gazipur election and could be the subject of new research to determine who is the real “Gazi” and who is the martyr.
In this particular case, “Gazi” could be conferred upon any on the prominent key stakeholders like independent candidate and newly elected Mayor Jayeda Khatoon herself, her son and man behind the victory Jahangir, Awami League candidate Advocate Azmat Ullah, who have been fighting against own party men and fake supporters , the Election Commission, which has shown the courage to suddenly break away, America, which has announced visa-related tricks at the exact moment of the election, the BNP, who proved their presence even though they are not, the followers of Charmonai, who also proved their existence, power, and ability to protect their future, the administration, which came out of the box as if obeying the order of a demon, the civil society and the media, who were extra vigilant , and above all, the high command of the Awami League, who wanted the victory of democracy and were ready to sacrifice the election of Gazipur City Corporation for the safety of 300 National Council seats.
Note: This article was originally published on Bangladesh Protidin (5th June 2023). We are re-publishing the translated edition with author’s permission
