Recent Iranian media reports have revealed Iran’s ambitious plan to form a naval alliance that includes not only Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf States but also India and Pakistan. Iran’s navy commander, Shahram Irani, announced it. With a shared understanding of the crucial role cooperation plays in ensuring regional security, Iran has emphasised the significance of uniting neighbouring countries. While details about the alliance remain undisclosed, its establishment is anticipated in the near future. The burning question now is whether India and Pakistan will seize this opportunity to join forces in pursuit of enhanced security measures.
Regional stability in focus
In recent months, there has been a significant improvement in relations between Iran and several Gulf countries. Iran restored diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in April after a five-year rupture, following the restoration of full diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last year. Additionally, the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met in South Africa on June 2, with the Saudi foreign minister stating his intention to visit Iran in the near future. Furthermore, Reuters has reported that the UAE and Qatar will restore full diplomatic ties and reopen embassies, with ambassadors in place by mid-June. These developments indicate a shifting diplomatic landscape in the region.
According to a statement from Iranian navy commander Shahram Irani, countries in the region have recognized the importance of synergy and cooperation among them for establishing regional security. Iran has previously conducted joint naval exercises with Oman, and now Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, and other countries also express their interest in naval cooperation with Iran.
The changing dynamics can be seen in the context of the UAE’s recent announcement that it has withdrawn from the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a maritime coalition established in 2001 to secure critical Gulf waterways for global oil trade. While the UAE has stated that it remains a partner nation and has put its participation on hold, this move signals a shift in the UAE’s strategic orientation.
Wang Jin, an expert from Northwest University of China, suggests that the UAE’s decision reflects a preference for increased communication and cooperation with Iran. He explains that the UAE, which has been a key US ally in the Middle East, has become dissatisfied with what it perceives as unilateral and hegemonic interference from its ally. Wang further predicts that this move by the UAE may indicate a trend in which more Middle Eastern countries pursue a more measured and independent foreign policy vis-à-vis the United States. Generally, the evolving diplomatic dynamics in the Gulf region, particularly the improving relations between Gulf countries and Iran, indicate a potential shift in regional alliances and foreign policy approaches.
Shahram Irani emphasised the importance of cooperation among regional countries to ensure security in the area. While he did not provide details about the shape of the alliance, he mentioned that it would be formed soon and would include countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan, and India. This development reflects Iran’s efforts to mend strained ties with several Gulf Arab states.
The recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by a China-mediated deal, has frustrated Israel’s diplomatic isolation efforts against Iran. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to activate a security cooperation agreement signed in 2001, along with an earlier accord on trade, economy, and investment.
While Iran has previously collaborated with China and Russia, this new initiative seeks to capitalise on reports of the UAE leaving the US-led Combined Maritime Forces. The announcement was made by the Iranian navy commander on June 2.
What China is thinking about the plan?
China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in his regular press conference, “China emphasises the significance of upholding peace and stability in the Gulf region as it directly impacts the wellbeing of regional countries and people, as well as global peace, economic growth, and energy supply stability. China supports regional countries in resolving disputes, fostering good-neighbourly relations, and promoting dialogue and consultation as means to cultivate friendship and cooperation.”
Wenbin further added, “China also encourages regional countries to pursue development through solidarity and taking control of their own future. As a reliable friend to regional countries, China is committed to playing a positive and constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the region.” Wang Jin stated that Iran’s plan holds great significance. He regarded the naval alliance as a regional and multilateral mechanism or platform for maritime security, anti-piracy efforts, and conducting sea rescues.
Wang emphasised that joint coordination among the participating countries is crucial for ensuring maritime safety in the Gulf region. Furthermore, he stated that the establishment of a naval coordination mechanism indicates that mutual trust among these nations has reached a new level, potentially leading to expanded areas of cooperation in the future. However, no further details about the alliance have been provided, and there has been no confirmation from the other countries involved.
Will India-Pakistan join?
Iran’s announcement of a naval alliance involving Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, and India and Pakistan, making efforts to improve relations with Gulf Arab nations, and the Beijing-mediated deal between Tehran and Riyadh in March all these diplomatic initiatives have already yielded results, such as the return of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League.
This development highlights two important dynamics. Firstly, it indicates that Iran and Saudi Arabia are realising the detrimental impact of their regional proxy war and are seeking alternative ways to manage their relations. Secondly, the United States has been gradually reducing its engagement in the Middle East and focusing more on East Asia. Consequently, Washington is no longer seen as a reliable problem solver in the region. The decisions by former President Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and President Biden to not re-join it have contributed to the perception of the U.S. as an unreliable actor.
China has been expanding its economic partnerships in the region, which has attracted attention from Middle Eastern countries. In contrast, the U.S.’s plan to create an alliance of democracies to counter autocracies, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict, has generated unease among Middle East regimes. If China’s influence continues to grow in the region, it could pose challenges for India, which heavily relies on the Middle East for energy resources and the remittance economy. India would prefer to work closely with Washington in the region, making initiatives like the I2U2 (India, Israel, US, and UAE) platform crucial to maintain its presence in the Middle East and counter China’s influence.
Overall, the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, driven by shifting alliances, U.S. disengagement, and China’s expanding influence, necessitates careful consideration and strategic manoeuvring by countries like India to safeguard their interests in the region. On the contrary, there is a possibility that Pakistan may consider joining the alliance due to its existing friendly relations with China. Pakistan may seek to strengthen its ties with other Gulf States by becoming a part of this alliance. Several news media outlets in Pakistan have given priority coverage to the news of this alliance with Iran and other Gulf states, portraying it in a positive light. This indicates a positive reception among the Pakistani population. However, no official statements have yet been released by the Pakistani government or the Indian government regarding their views on this matter.
