Strategically located between South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh has emerged as a sought-after partner in the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape. It participates in China’s Belt and Road Initiative but aims for neutrality and close economic ties with both China and the US through its new Indo-Pacific policy. However, Bangladesh maintains warm relations with India due to proximity and deep-rooted friendship.
The rivalry among superpowers has forced Bangladesh into a delicate balancing act. After independence, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s government aspired to strengthen the nation’s security, sovereignty, and seek development resources. This led to building extra-regional linkages, with foreign policy resting on four pillars: superpowers, Islamic Middle East, China, and international organizations.
Despite challenges, Bangladesh established itself globally during the Bangabandhu era. Over five decades later, under Sheikh Hasina, the country’s mature foreign policy maintains a fine balance in navigating diplomatic ropes.
Standing Unique Amid Great Power Rivalries
The current multipolar world system and ongoing global crises, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel’s conflict with Palestine, and the US-China and India-China rivalries, have given rise to a Cold War-like situation. Bangladesh firmly stands unique in this global volatility and diplomatic equations.
Bangladesh’s foreign policy is clearly non-aligned. However, maintaining this stance has become more challenging, particularly after the Ukraine crisis and Bangladesh’s own general election. The US and some Western countries criticized the election due to the opposition BNP’s boycott, but Russia and China opposed US ‘interference’. India took a ‘non-interference’ stance, saying Bangladesh’s elections are an internal matter.
The USA wanted Bangladesh to join its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and there were rumors about joining the Quad alliance with India, Japan, and Australia. However, Bangladesh denied receiving a formal Quad invitation, as China considered it an ‘anti-China threat’ and warned against joining.
According to reports, both India and China have expressed interest in financing Bangladesh’s Teesta economic zone project, which is a concern for India. Bangladesh relies on India for security, trade, and bilateral cooperation, so it cannot avoid India in foreign policy decisions. Similarly, Bangladesh relies on China as a major trade partner and ‘all-weather friend’, benefiting from initiatives like China’s Belt and Road.
Bangladesh must maintain political and economic links with India and China, necessitating a hedging strategy to cooperate with both. It cannot pick sides in the US-China trade war or ideological conflicts given their importance as stable trade partners.
Regarding the US-Russia rivalry, Bangladesh cannot choose sides globally. While Russia assists projects like the Rooppur nuclear power plant, the US is Bangladesh’s largest export market and security partner.
Hence, Bangladesh needs to continuously pursue a ‘hedging’ strategy to further its interests while avoiding collision with the contending great powers by forging protective ties without aligning.
“Bangladesh has long been effective at navigating great power competition, but one can argue that the challenge has never been as great as now,” Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute told media.
“Competition between the US and China, India and China, and the US and Russia is growing more robust, and all of these rivalries are playing out in Bangladesh. Dhaka, to this point, has continued to play its strategic cards right,” he said.
Professor of International Relations Dr Shahab Enam Khan of Jahangirnagar University told the media that Bangladesh must focus on multilateralism and strengthening internal institutions to deal with global changes.
Prof Khan said Bangladesh, so far, has maintained a delicate and balanced position in international relations. While current global politics is undergoing tectonic shifts, the balancing act is increasingly becoming challenging. The sustainability of such acts can always get more complicated in the coming years.
Balancing India and China
As the strategic rivalry between India and China intensifies, Bangladesh increasingly finds itself embroiled in a great game along the Indian Ocean region.
After Sheikh Hasina won a fourth consecutive term in January this year as prime minister, China and India rushed in to congratulate her. Both countries invited Sheikh Hasina for bilateral visits and the PM reached New Delhi on Saturday (June 8) and is supposed to visit China July 9-12.
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The new foreign minister of Bangladesh made his first bilateral visit to India from February 7-9. During the Lok Sabha elections, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra came to Bangladesh.
When asked about why PM visited India first, Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud said, “Delhi is close to us (geographically), Beijing is a little far.”
Former foreign minister and the current chief of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs AK Abdul Momen said, “After the visit to India, the prime minister is likely to visit China next month. I think it’s an overall ‘win-win’ situation for Bangladesh.”
Last year, Bangladesh inaugurated a $1.2 billion submarine base in Cox’s Bazar which was built with Chinese help. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the country’s investment in Bangladesh now stands at about $1.5 billion.
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Bangladesh’s ties with China have improved steadily since 1975. Chinese officials made their first high-level visit in 1978, which set off improvements in bilateral relations. Greater momentum came in 2013, with the launch of China’s BRI. Dhaka formally joined the BRI during President Xi’s visit to Bangladesh in 2016, when relations were upgraded to a strategic partnership. BRI membership has brought Bangladesh an influx of Chinese investment totaling USD 38.05 billion, roughly equal to 10 percent of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product, the largest sum ever pledged to Bangladesh by a single country. In 2005 China overtook India as Bangladesh’s principal source of imports, most notably in defence trade.
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China is now Bangladesh’s top trading partner, direct foreign investor, trade importer, and military hardware supplier. In 2020, China also granted duty-free access to its market for 97 percent of Bangladeshi products.
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In Bangladeshi geopolitics, India has long been at the center due to its geographic proximity, cultural links and above all its crucial help during Bangladesh’s liberation war. Since then, the two countries have cooperated in various fields, such as trade, defense, energy, connectivity, and development assistance.
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India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching USD 27.28 billion in 2022-23. India is also Bangladesh’s largest development partner, with cumulative lines of credit worth USD 10 billion for infrastructure projects India has also resolved several outstanding issues with Bangladesh, such as the land and maritime boundaries, the sharing of the Ganges water, and the exchange of enclaves India has offered Bangladesh to access to its northeastern states and other neighboring countries, such as Nepal and Bhutan, through transit and transport agreements.
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While beneficial, Bangladesh’s relations with China and India also pose challenges and risks. China and India are engaged in a strategic rivalry and competition for influence in the region and beyond. The two countries have clashed over their disputed border, roles in the Indian Ocean, and involvement in other countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. Bangladesh has to navigate carefully between these powers, avoiding taking sides or being drawn into their conflicts.
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Bangladesh must ensure its economic engagement with China does not compromise its sovereignty, security, or debt sustainability. It also has to balance its military ties with China and security cooperation with India, which considers Bangladesh a key partner in its ‘neighborhood first’ policy and vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Keeping this in mind, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has pursued a balanced and diversified foreign policy of ‘friendship to all, malice to none.’ She has demonstrated wisdom and skill in managing Bangladesh’s relations with China, India, and others.
Michael Kugelman, the South Asia director at the Wilson Center, stated Bangladesh is successfully “reaping the benefits of great power competition” in its China and India ties. “Its economic and defense ties with Beijing have grown significantly…We’ve gotten to the point where China is financing Bangladesh’s first submarine base. This is another reflection of Dhaka’s successes as a balancer,” he added, as reported by DW.
Looking For Win-Win Bilateral Relations
As Bangladesh emerges as a strategically important player in South Asian states, the onus is now to reap sustainable benefits aligning with the long-term interests of Bangladesh. For now, Bangladesh can enjoy the attention it gets from its two neighboring rivals the West and Russia. By playing its cards wisely, South Asia’s stellar performer can safeguard its economic and strategic interests.
Bangladesh is now trying to capitalize on the geopolitical advantage that Bangladesh enjoys as a country that overlooks the strategically important sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. Such an approach speaks of her vision to move ahead with an essentially ‘win-win’ situation by leaving behind China’s hostile attitude during Bangladesh’s Liberation War in 1971.
Last but not least, Capitalizing the geopolitical advantage carries great potential and risks too. Battling superpowers are racing to engage with Bangladesh and on the other hand, they are trying to deter their rivals from the country. The equations are complex and have to be maintained carefully. For now, the country can’t afford any break-up with any of its major allies but keeping warm ties with rival superpowers is a risky game. And Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina walking the diplomatic tightrope wisely.