Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a stern warning, stating that they will attack Israel’s nuclear sites and may pursue a nuclear weapon if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Iranian warning came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel reserves “the right to protect itself”. All these are related to Iran’s recent attacks on Israel as a response to Israel’s suspected targeting of Tehran’s consulate in Syria.
The IRGC has claimed to have identified Israel’s nuclear facilities and has all the necessary information on potential targets. Brigadier General Ahmad Haghtalab, the commander of the IRGC division responsible for protecting Iranian nuclear facilities, stated, “Our fingers are on the trigger of firing strong missiles to destroy the designated targets in response to a potential attack by them.”
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Moreover, Haghtalab has issued Iran’s most direct warning yet, suggesting that Iran may abandon its stated policy of refraining from building a nuclear bomb. He stated, “If the fake Zionist regime wants to use the threat of attacking the nuclear centers of our country as a tool, reconsidering the doctrine and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and deviating from previously stated considerations would be likely and imaginable.”
Iran’s top nuclear facilities, especially the installations at Natanz in central Isfahan, have been subject to multiple sabotage attacks blamed on Israel amid a long-standing shadow war. However, Israel has never directly attacked Iranian soil or its nuclear facilities.
Currently, Iran is enriching uranium up to 60 percent, which is a short technical step away from the more than 90 percent enrichment required for an atomic bomb. Additionally, Iran possesses enough fissile material for several bombs, making it a threshold nuclear state. However, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and US intelligence assessments, Iran has yet to take further steps required to actually build a bomb.
A History of Tension Over Nuclear Weapons
The Islamic Republic of Iran has accused Israel of carrying out sabotage attacks on its nuclear facilities and assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years.
Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated that Iran has closed its nuclear facilities to inspectors “for security reasons” following the attack.
While Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, it has never officially acknowledged this. The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces has vowed to respond to the Iranian aerial attack on Israel.
Global leaders have urged de-escalation and restraint, and Israeli officials have not specified when or where Israel would retaliate against Iran.
Netanyahu is facing pressure from hardliners within his coalition government to strike Iran forcefully as a deterrent. Tehran’s attack on Israel was in retaliation for the April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals.
How Close Is Iran To Having Nuclear Weapons?
The analysis assumes that Iran would use 16 kilograms of highly enriched uranium metal (around 90% U-235) in the finished core of each nuclear weapon. Sixteen kilograms are considered sufficient for an implosion weapon design that has been circulated on the nuclear black market, to which Iran has had access.
Some experts believe that Iran could potentially use less material, assuming they accept a lower yield for each weapon. According to these experts, Iran could use as little as seven kilograms of this material if their weapon developers possess a “medium” level of skill, and if Iran is satisfied with an explosive yield slightly less than that of the Hiroshima bomb. If Iran chooses to use a smaller amount than 16 kg, the time required to produce the fuel for each weapon would be less than estimated.
Alternatively, in the estimated timeframe, Iran could potentially manufacture a greater number of weapons. However, Iran may decide not to use such a smaller amount if they want to have more confidence in their weapons’ functionality or reduce the size of their weapons by reducing the amount of high explosives.
A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander has stated that Iran could review its “nuclear doctrine” amid Israeli threats. While the exact meaning of this term is unclear, as it typically refers to countries with nuclear weapons (unlike Iran), the following outlines Iran’s current nuclear status.
Collapse Of The Deal And Breakout Time
In 2015, a deal was struck that imposed stringent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities, and in return, international sanctions against Tehran were lifted. This deal significantly reduced Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, leaving it with only a small quantity enriched to a purity of up to 3.67%, a far cry from the approximately 90% purity that is considered weapons grade. The United States stated at the time that a primary goal was to extend the period Iran would require to produce sufficient fissile material for a nuclear bomb – the most significant obstacle in a weapons program – to at least one year.
In 2018, then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal, reinstating sanctions on Tehran that severely cut its oil sales and damaged its economy. In 2019, Iran began violating the restrictions on its nuclear activities and subsequently went well beyond them. It has now violated all the deal’s main restrictions, including those on where, with what equipment, and to what degree it can enrich uranium, as well as how much material it can accumulate.
As of February, its enriched uranium stockpile, which was limited to 202.8 kg under the deal, stood at 5.5 tonnes, according to the latest quarterly report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog that inspects Iran’s enrichment facilities. Iran is currently enriching uranium to a purity of up to 60% and has enough material enriched to that level, if further enriched, for two nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s theoretical definition.
This implies that Iran’s so-called “breakout time” – the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb – is nearly zero, likely a matter of weeks or days.
Due to Iran’s decision to stop implementing elements of the deal, the IAEA can no longer fully monitor Iran’s production and inventory of centrifuges, and machines that enrich uranium, and it can no longer conduct surprise inspections.
Weaponization
Apart from the process of uranium enrichment, there’s also the question of how long it would take for Iran to manufacture the rest of a nuclear weapon and potentially miniaturize it to fit into a delivery system like a ballistic missile, should it decide to do so. This is more difficult to estimate because it’s unclear how much knowledge Iran possesses in this area.
