With a decisive victory in Iowa and a likely win in New Hampshire, Trump has effectively crushed any hope of a competitive Republican primary. His closest rival, Ron DeSantis, trails far behind and poses no serious challenge to his dominance. The only uncertainty in the Granite State is how close Nikki Haley will come to Trump, as different polls show wildly divergent results. Suffolk University, which has a high rating from FiveThirtyEight.com, gives Trump a comfortable 16-point lead, while American Research Group, which has a low rating, puts them in a virtual tie.
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But even if Haley manages to pull off a surprise, it would not change the fact that this primary season is a sham. The media has been covering the primary as if it were a real contest, when in fact Trump has faced no meaningful opposition or scrutiny. Trump has avoided any debates with his rivals; like Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the debate, or like Ron DeSantis, who is focusing on other states. The Democrats, meanwhile, have effectively boycotted the primary, as the White House punished New Hampshire for moving its date ahead of schedule. No delegates will be awarded, and Joe Biden will not appear on the ballot, yet he is still expected to win by a large margin through write-in votes.
This is not the first time that a primary season has been cut short or rendered irrelevant. In 2000, Al Gore secured the Democratic nomination after narrowly defeating Bill Bradley in New Hampshire. In most years, the race is over by Super Tuesday in February or March. But this year is different, as the primary has been reduced to a mere spectacle, a throwback to the 1960s when the nominees were chosen by party elites behind closed doors. The outcome of the 2024 election depends less on the voters than on external factors, such as whether Trump will be disqualified or jailed, or whether Biden will be replaced by Gavin Newsom at the convention. This could be the first time since 1968 that the Democratic convention will have a real impact on the nomination, which could be seen as either a coup by the establishment or a restoration of sanity by the experienced leaders.
The lack of ideological debate in the primary also reflects the hollowing out of the democratic process. Biden’s main challenger on the Democratic side is Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman who has failed to generate any enthusiasm or momentum for his campaign. He has no clear policy agenda, except for criticizing Biden’s age. He once held an event where no one showed up, and joked: “Sometimes if you build it, they don’t come.” Haley and DeSantis, on the other hand, have not dared to challenge Trump’s agenda or style, as they hope to secure his endorsement or succession. They are playing the long game, waiting for 2024 or beyond. But by then, it may be too late to revive the spirit of democracy that has been lost in this primary season.
The Competition is No Longer About Republican Presidential Nominee, but for Trump’s Running Mate
As the Republican presidential hopefuls compete for votes in New Hampshire this month, a more intense and secretive campaign is unfolding behind the scenes: being Donald Trump’s running mate. The former president’s choice of a vice-presidential candidate will reveal how confident he is in his own ability to defeat President Biden. Does he think he needs a strong ally to win, or can he do it alone?
Trump may opt for a vice-presidential pick who resembles Dick Cheney, someone who has no desire to run for president themselves (and who may not even have a political background, unlike Cheney). However, Trump’s assertion at the Fox News town hall last week that he already has a name in mind has not been confirmed by anyone close to him.
The only thing that seems clear is that Trump will look for someone who meets his criteria of loyalty, appearance, and skill. He wants a running mate who will be faithful to him, who will fit his image of a leader, and who will have enough competence to impress him, but not enough to outshine him. If the results of the Iowa caucus are any indicator of things to come; it is that Trump has likely already won the Republican ticket.
Less Race, More Personality Contest
The presidential race has become a personality contest, rather than a policy debate. Haley, the only challenger to Trump on Ukraine, has been sidelined by the lack of public discussion. The frontrunner, Biden, has avoided scrutiny of his positions. The voters are left with questions that belong to a Medieval era: How old is the King? How crooked is the pretender? Will they survive the year? In the past, people relied on astrology to make their choices. If Gemini is in the Ninth House, then this is the most predictable presidential race in recent history. It is a rematch of the 2020 election, and it was always meant to be.
What made this outcome inevitable? Several factors: Trump’s denial of his defeat in 2020. The Republican Party’s unwillingness to break away from him. His loyal base of supporters. Biden’s narcissism, which matches Trump’s. Biden’s refusal to step down, despite his obvious mental deterioration. And the fact that both Trump and Biden are happy with their re-nomination because they think the other is the easiest to beat.
But are they right? Would a different candidate pose a bigger threat? A recent YouGov poll suggests so. It shows Haley leading Biden by eight points, a larger margin than Trump’s two points. Newsom, on the other hand, has no edge over Biden in hypothetical match-ups against Trump. Americans are unhappy with the state of their country, and that favors the Republicans. In a two-party system, when the mood is low, the incumbent suffers, and the challenger benefits. Therefore, a Trump victory in November is a logical conclusion.
