Three years after the infamous outbreak of violence on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of former President Donald Trump’s supporters, many Americans have changed their opinion about the event and the people involved. A recent joint poll by Suffolk University and USA Today indicates a growing division in the country, with an increasing number of individuals expressing sympathy for the rioters. The poll also reveals deep partisan and racial differences in how Americans view the legitimacy of the 2020 election, the state of the nation’s democracy, and the need for an investigation into the January 6th insurrection.
A Shift in Public Opinion
The poll, conducted from December 29, 2023 to January 2, 2024, surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll found that 50% of respondents called the January 6th attackers “criminals”, down from 59% in a similar poll conducted in June 2021. Meanwhile, 38% said they “went too far, but had a point”, up from 28% in June 2021, and only 6% said they acted appropriately.
The shift in public opinion was largely driven by Republicans, who became more sympathetic toward the rioters over time. While 17% of Republicans labeled the January 6th attackers as criminals, down from 35% in June 2021, nearly two-thirds of GOPers, 66%, said the attackers had a point but went too far, up from 51% in June 2021. Eleven percent of Republicans said the rioters acted appropriately, up from 6% in June 2021.
Democrats, on the other hand, remained largely consistent in their views of the Jan; however, data shows that they too are leaning towards republican views; albeit at an exceedingly slower rate. Eighty-five percent of Democrats believed the attackers to be criminals, down slightly from 88% in June 2021. Thirteen percent of Democrats said the attackers went too far, but had a point, up from 9% in June 2021. Only 1% of Democrats said the attackers acted appropriately, the same as in June 2021.
Independents also showed a slight increase in sympathy for the rioters, with 46% calling them criminals, down from 54% in June 2021, and 40% saying they went too far, but had a point, up from 32% in June 2021. Seven percent of independents said the attackers acted appropriately, up from 5% in June 2021.
A Divided Democracy
The poll also asked respondents about their views on the 2020 election, the state of the nation’s democracy, and the need for an investigation into the Jan. 6th insurrection. The results showed a stark contrast between Democrats and Republicans, as well as between different racial groups.
While 96% of Democrats believed President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, just 33% of Republicans agreed. In the same poll, 2% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans believed Biden was wrongly inaugurated. Independents were more evenly split, with 63% saying Biden was legitimately elected and 28% saying he was not.
Similarly, 71% of respondents said the nation’s democracy was weaker than it was four years ago, but the reasons behind this perception varied by party affiliation. 85% of Republicans believed democracy was weaker, compared to 59% of Democrats. Among Republicans, 77% blamed Biden and the Democrats for weakening democracy, while among Democrats, 74% blamed Trump and the Republicans. Independents were more likely to blame both sides, with 38% blaming Biden and the Democrats, 36% blaming Trump and the Republicans, and 18% blaming both.
Racial divisions also mirrored the partisan differences, with 75% of whites, 53% of Black Americans, and 59% of Hispanics thinking America’s democracy had weakened in the past four years. Among whites, 52% blamed Biden and the Democrats, while 37% blamed Trump and the Republicans. Among Black Americans, 82% blamed Trump and the Republicans, while 9% blamed Biden and the Democrats. Amid Hispanics, 49% blamed Trump and the Republicans, while 38% blamed Biden and the Democrats.
The poll also found that 78% of Republicans believed an investigation into the Jan. 6th insurrection was a waste of time, while 85% of Democrats supported it. Independents were more divided, with 49% supporting the investigation and 42% opposing it.
A Dangerous Movement
The poll results suggest that many Americans continue to hold the insurrectionist sentiments that led to the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. According to research by Prof. Robert Pape and the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, the insurrectionist movement in the U.S. is larger and more dangerous than expected and poses a serious threat to the stability of the country.
The research, based on a survey of 1,200 Americans conducted in June 2021, found that 4% of respondents, or about 10 million people, supported the use of force to restore Trump to power. The research also identified five key factors that motivated the insurrectionists: the belief that the 2020 election was stolen, distrust in the mainstream media, support for the QAnon conspiracy theory, economic dissatisfaction, and racial resentment.
Research warned that the insurrectionist movement could grow and become more violent if these factors are not addressed. The research also called for a comprehensive strategy to counter the movement, including strengthening the rule of law, promoting civic education, enhancing social media regulation, and fostering dialogue and reconciliation.
The Jan. 6th insurrection was a shocking and unprecedented event in American history, but it was not an isolated incident. It was the culmination of a long-standing and widespread movement that challenges the legitimacy of the democratic system and the peaceful transfer of power. Three years later, the movement is still alive and active and has gained more sympathy and support from a significant portion of the population. The poll results reveal the deep divisions and distrust that plague the nation, and the urgent need for action to restore and protect the democracy that many Americans cherish.
