Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s pragmatic approach and the Awami League’s commitment to fair elections will guide Bangladesh’s response.
Numerous countries around the world, despite lacking democracy, human rights, or fair elections, maintain alliances with the United States. In contrast, why did the United States take such a stringent stance on the issue of free and fair elections in Bangladesh?
Geopolitical Factors and the Indo-Pacific Region
First and foremost, Bangladesh shares a multifaceted relationship with the United States, encompassing substantial trade, investment, remittances from expatriates, and vital security cooperation, all of which align with U.S. national interests. Additionally, Bangladesh maintains diverse connections with nearly all of the United States’ allied nations.
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Secondly, the geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region play a pivotal role. The United States is actively working to exert pressure on Bangladesh in various ways to draw it away from China’s sphere of influence. This strategy is aimed at thwarting China’s economic and military sway over Bangladesh.
Upon scrutinizing the reasons behind the imposition of sanctions and the apprehension of potential future sanctions, it becomes apparent that Bangladesh finds itself entangled in the power struggle for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly between the superpowers, the United States and China. Furthermore, historical tensions have persisted between India and Bangladesh.
In 2021, the United States unveiled its Indo-Pacific Strategy, underscoring the Indo-Pacific region’s significance, which constitutes 25 percent of the world’s landmass and 65 percent of its oceans. This region is home to over half of the global population, with 58 percent being youthful individuals. It drives economic growth, accounting for two-thirds of the global economy, 60 percent of global GDP, and 60 percent of worldwide consumption. The Indo-Pacific region encompasses a plethora of developed and developing countries, including China, India, Pakistan, Japan, and Korea, collectively emerging as a focal point of global politics and a matter of strategic interest for the United States.
Sanctions and Visa Bans in other Countries
The United States has frequently resorted to imposing visa sanctions and other forms of sanctions on various countries, including Bangladesh, as part of its foreign policy strategy. However, it is worth noting that these sanctions have not always had the intended impact. In fact, several countries, such as China and North Korea, have managed to weather these sanctions and continue their operations largely unaffected.
Across the globe, the United States has deployed sanctions against a total of 16 countries, encompassing a wide array of reasons for their imposition. Among these measures, alterations to visa policies have been applied in eight nations, and a plethora of restrictions have been placed on numerous individuals and institutions in eight different countries. In most instances, the United States has typically imposed visa restrictions following a country’s elections.
The U.S. placed a visa ban on Bangladesh approximately three months prior to its national elections. This move has led to speculations that the United States is closely monitoring developments in Bangladesh. Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asian Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, stated in an interview with BBC Bangla, “The U.S. administration will now be closely observing the events in Bangladesh as the elections draw nearer.”
Conversely, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has indicated that the United States retains the option to impose a visa ban on individuals who might undermine the democratic process in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s Response and Geopolitical Balancing Act
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently remarked in an interview with Voice of America, “They can impose more sanctions if they wish.” It’s important to note that the sanctions imposed by the United States, ostensibly in the name of promoting democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression, are often driven by the U.S.’s own strategic and geopolitical interests. Consequently, these sanctions tend to have limited positive impact on the people and economy of the targeted country.
Notably, Bangladesh was formerly a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In May 2021, China’s ambassador to Dhaka, Li Ziming, advised against Bangladesh joining the U.S.-led ‘Quad,’ characterized as an ‘anti-Beijing club,’ emphasizing that such a move would seriously harm China-Bangladesh bilateral relations.
It’s worth mentioning that Bangladesh is not currently a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia. However, the desire of these nations for Bangladesh to be part of the broader Indo-Pacific strategy of the Biden administration was evident in a speech by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in March.
In light of these developments, ahead of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visits to Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, Bangladesh outlined its approach to the Indo-Pacific region in April. In this document, Bangladesh expressed its commitment to a ‘balanced’ approach based on the principle of ‘friendship with all and enmity with none.’
Awami League’s Perspective
Given the Awami League’s stance in favor of conducting free, fair, and impartial elections in the country, the party does not appear to be overly concerned about the initiation of a U.S. visa ban process targeting those responsible for obstructing democracy and the electoral process in Bangladesh. Instead, the party intends to approach the visa ban cautiously and seeks to understand the objectives and messages conveyed by the United States through this measure.
Lastly. the U.S. visa ban and sanctions, often driven by strategic interests, underscore the multifaceted challenges Bangladesh faces. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s pragmatic approach and the Awami League’s commitment to fair elections will guide Bangladesh’s response. As elections approach, Bangladesh’s ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape while safeguarding its democratic principles and interests will be pivotal.
