Kyiv is alarmed by the prospect of Slovakia joining Hungary in forming a Ukraine-sceptic alliance within the European Union bloc
Slovakia’s former Prime Minister, Robert Fico, a left-wing populist, clinched victory in the parliamentary elections on Sunday, October 1, 2023, with his SMER-SSD party. His campaign revolved around the promise to withdraw military support for Ukraine and halt sanctions against Russia. This outcome delivered a climactic blow to Kyiv, which had been embroiled in disputes with Poland over Ukrainian grain imports. Kyiv also faced threats from US Republican lawmakers regarding a new aid deal.
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These unfolding events have ignited discussions about a significant global shift in sentiment toward supporting Ukraine as the relentless war enters its second year and a half.
Fico’s victory alters Ukraine’s support landscape
According to Teona Lavrelashvili, an analyst at the European Politics Centre, these developments could indicate that several allies are now open to a “pragmatic solution” for ending the conflict.
While some traditional allies appear to have “fallen out of step,” as noted by Sean Hanley, an associate professor in Comparative Central and East European Politics at University College London, Kyiv remains concerned but not in a state of panic. Fico’s victory, though still requiring a coalition to be formed, marked a stark departure from Slovakia’s previous stance since the start of the war. As recently as April this year, Slovak President Zuzana Caputova had visited Kyiv in a routine show of support.
Hanley suggests that Kyiv’s unease primarily stems from the Slovak pivot towards Russia, signifying the onset of “Ukraine fatigue” among allies. The potential cut in Slovakia’s military aid, however, is seen as a lesser worry. Unlike some other countries like Serbia or Bulgaria, Slovakia doesn’t exhibit widespread pro-Kremlin sentiment. Instead, it tends to lean towards “Ukraine-sceptic” views, prioritizing national interests over international causes, aligning with the growing populist illiberal trends challenging Western emulation.
Furthermore, Kyiv is alarmed by the prospect of Slovakia joining Hungary in forming a Ukraine-sceptic alliance within the European Union bloc. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for maintaining close ties with Moscow throughout the war, opposes supplying arms to Ukraine or offering economic aid. Orban’s recent congratulatory message to Fico on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, marks a notable shift from the strained relations between Slovak and Hungarian nationalists in the past.
Poland’s Support for Ukraine Falters Amidst Grain Dispute
Since the outbreak of the war in February 2022, Poland has stood as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies. This border-sharing nation has not only offered refuge to millions of Ukrainian displaced persons but has also orchestrated the transfer of a myriad of weapons to bolster Kyiv’s resistance against Russia. Furthermore, it has played a pivotal role as a transit hub for arms shipments from various nations. This alliance, once unshakable, has recently shown signs of strain as Poland and its neighbor engaged in a bitter dispute over Ukrainian grain imports.
The rift culminated in Poland’s announcement that it would cease sending arms to Ukraine and consider cutting aid to refugees. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki delivered a stern warning to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, cautioning him against ever “insulting” Poles again. This rebuke came in response to Zelenskyy’s statement at the United Nations, where he decried the “political theatre” surrounding grain imports, which he believed played into Moscow’s hands.
A Flashpoint in Poland-Ukraine relations
The origins of this dispute trace back to September when Poland imposed constraints on Ukrainian grain imports in a bid to safeguard its local farmers. Ukraine’s fury was palpable, leading to a series of warnings and counter-warnings that escalated this quarrel onto the international stage.
Robert Pszczel, a senior fellow at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation in Poland, reassured that despite the “unpleasant rhetoric” between the two nations, Poland’s unwavering strategic support for Ukraine remains intact. This recent discord, he explained, is the culmination of ongoing tensions, including an incident in November when an air defense missile claimed two lives in southern Poland. Poland and NATO attributed the incident to a Ukrainian missile but held Russia ultimately responsible for instigating the war. Kyiv vehemently denied any involvement.
However, it’s important to note that comparing Poland and Slovakia reveals distinct differences. In Slovakia, pro-Kremlin narratives have gained a more substantial foothold, driving a wedge between Eastern and Western influences. Some now regard the United States as a “security threat.” Meanwhile, Poland’s stance on Russia remains unchanged, with discussions around Ukraine centered on striking a balance between national interests and sustaining some form of support.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape, Poland and Slovakia stand as unique players, each navigating its own path in the complex relationship with Ukraine and its volatile neighbor, Russia.
US politics and Ukraine aid
In the midst of these developments, recent events in the United States have raised further concerns for Ukraine. At a NATO summit in July, US President Joe Biden had emphatically reassured G7 leaders and President Zelenskyy, affirming, “Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken.”
However, a late Sunday compromise in the US Congress, aimed at averting a government shutdown, saw the abandonment of a new funding deal for Ukraine. This decision was primarily driven by resistance from hardline Republicans, casting a shadow of uncertainty over Ukraine’s future aid.
The subsequent removal of Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House of Representatives only adds to the ambiguity surrounding Ukraine’s assistance. Joshua Tucker, head of the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and professor of politics at New York University, cautioned against viewing this stopgap bill in isolation, emphasizing the peculiar nature of US domestic politics at the moment.
Tucker further explained that within the United States, the political discourse surrounding Ukraine centers on concerns about excessive war spending, a distinct contrast to Europe where there is a growing desire for an end to the conflict due to its direct impact on energy prices and quality of life.
In response to this shifting dynamic, most EU foreign ministers gathered outside the bloc for the first time this week. They visited Kyiv on Monday, staging a public demonstration of unwavering solidarity. Poland and Hungary also sent their representatives, underlining a united front. “I don’t see any member state faltering,” affirmed Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, promising Ukraine billions of euros in military aid and training for fighter pilots.
On Tuesday, President Biden sought to reassure his counterparts through a phone call, expressing his confidence that Congress will ultimately approve aid for Ukraine, emphasizing the commitment to stand with Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”