The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that between 2023 and 2028, Bangladesh is going to contribute more to global growth than the two largest European economies, France and the United Kingdom.
The World Bank Fund is pressing countries to avoid the economic fragmentation caused by geopolitical conflicts and to enhance productivity since the outlook for the next five years is the worst it has been in more than three decades.
What is in the report?
According to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, Bangladesh’s share of global gross domestic product growth is expected to be 1.6% through 2028, compared to 1.5% for the United Kingdom and France. IMF anticipates that the global economy will expand by approximately 3% over the next five years once higher interest rates begin to exert pressure.
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Twenty nations will account for 75% of global growth, with China, India, the United States, and Indonesia in the top four. Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France are anticipated to be among the top ten contributors, despite the Group of Seven countries contributing a smaller share of the total.
Growth curve upwards from 2024
According to the most recent World Economic Outlook, growth will decelerate from 3.4% last year to 2.8% this year. Next year, growth is projected to accelerate to 3%.
The risks to the outlook are significantly skewed to the downside, and the likelihood of a hard landing is elevated. In a plausible alternative scenario involving additional financial sector duress, global growth would decelerate to approximately 2.5% in 2023.
Over the next five years, it is anticipated that growth will remain at approximately 3%. This five-year growth forecast of 3% for 2028 is the lowest medium-term projection since 1990, and well below the average of 3.8% over the past twenty years.
The bleak outlook is a result of the tight policy stances required to reduce inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, and the increasing geo-economic fragmentation.
